The great panic over the lack of toilet paper hits again in Japan

Panic buying has returned to Japan. As the conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran rattles oil markets, Japanese consumers are stockpiling toilet paper — a product unrelated to the outages, but one that has caused enough trouble for the country that the Japanese government has asked people to stop buying in advance. Still, posts on social media showing empty shelves of toilet paper are multiplying.

But why would people panic buy products unrelated to or unaffected by the conflict? Panic buying behaves a lot like a bank run. No one knows exactly where it starts—some isolated, alarming data point that suggests a store will run out of toilet paper or a bank will run out of money.

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In the past, this “data” was a real person who ran and shouted to the neighbors: “Hey, João, get your money out of the bank! It’s going to end!” — and João ran away. Now, someone posts on social media that Covid-19, tariffs or the war with Iran will decimate toilet paper stocks, and strangers across the country start filling their carts.

Pandemic-Era Panic Buying Is Making a Comeback

This is exactly what happened in the great Covid-19 panic. On March 12, 2020, toilet paper sales soared 734% compared to the same day the previous year, making it the best-selling grocery item in the world that day. When the great toilet paper panic of 2020 ended, 70% of the world’s supermarkets had run out of stock at some point — a record.

The shortage was so severe that it led to a measurable change in bathroom habits in the United States: Bidet sales soared, and in many homes, adoption continued.

But researchers who studied the episode later found that there was, in fact, no disruption to the toilet paper supply chain. Production remained stable and distribution intact. The shortage was, in practice, almost entirely the result of panic and exaggeration.

Now, panic buying is back—this time in Japan—and in some ways, it makes even less sense. During Covid, supply chains across all sectors were under pressure, so the impulse to stockpile had at least apparent logic.

Today, the disruptions stem from the tightening of the oil market linked to the conflict with Iran, with little connection to consumer packaged goods. But Japan has a long history of toilet paper panics — and that history follows its own logic.

Japan’s history with toilet paper panics

Japan’s original toilet paper crisis occurred in 1973, also triggered by oil-related turmoil in the Middle East.

It all started when Yasuhiro Nakasone, then minister of international trade and industry, asked the public to save paper products.

The ad was intended to signal austerity. Instead, it fueled rumors that paper was running out — and Japanese consumers, especially women responsible for household budgets, began buying huge amounts of toilet paper.

Academics have described the panic as a reaction to the growing instability of the middle class, a fear that their livelihoods were supported by fragile appearances.

Since then, Japan has rushed to stock up on hygiene products whenever a crisis arises. The devastating 2011 earthquake and tsunami triggered the same type of hoarding behavior, although there apparently were some real disruptions in the affected regions. Now, the cycle is repeating itself.

What makes toilet paper a recurring target? It is bulky and clearly finite — when it disappears from the shelf, it attracts attention. And unlike food, which is consumed and replenished at a continuous pace, toilet paper occupies its own psychological category, as a symbol of long-term stability and responsibility.

“The importance of toilet paper is deeply rooted in the soul of modern culture,” wrote anthropologist Grant Jun Otsuki about shortages during Covid in 2021. “The mere thought of toilet paper disappearing from the world leads some people to act quickly and decisively to secure their own supplies.”

So far, the panic doesn’t appear to have spread much beyond Japan — except perhaps to neighboring Australia, where Perth has already seen some early signs of stockpiling. As if the screams coming from across the sea had finally reached new ears.