The right has a chance in the Northeast, but it needs to be efficient, says political scientist

For more than two decades, the Northeast has been fertile ground for candidacies sponsored by Lula, and the number of votes in the region plays a decisive role in the presidential election. For political scientists, even facing the symbolic barrier of “Lulism”, the right still has a chance to compete for the northeastern electorate, but will need to reinvent itself without the presence of Jair Bolsonaro in the 2026 elections.

“All states have the potential to win over voters. In the case of the Northeast, I think it is very difficult to reverse the favoritism consolidated by President Lula throughout his career, but there is always room”, says Luciana Santana, PhD in Political Science from UFMG and professor at the Federal University of Alagoas.

“To win state governments, perhaps this is a more tangible strategy, considering the resources that the parties concentrate. The right has an opportunity, but it needs to be efficient. And perhaps that is what it hasn’t had: the efficiency necessary to relocate and win an election”, says Luciana.

The latest Real Time Big Data survey, released on Wednesday (17), shows that President Lula leads voting intentions in the Northeast with a wide advantage in all scenarios tested for next year’s dispute. In the first round, the PT member had 51% of voting intentions, against 11% for second place, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ).

However, this phenomenon is not repeated in gubernatorial elections. If the Northeast previously compensated for possible losses in the Southeast, a fiercer dispute in the states tends to make the two regions equally competitive, increasing the weight of the large Northeastern capitals on the 2026 electoral board.

The projection of votes for governors reinforces this scenario of dispute. In Bahia, ACM Neto (União) and governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) appear in a technical tie, repeating the polarization of 2022 in a state where Lula holds the overwhelming majority of votes.

Data from the Real Time Big Data survey, released on November 26, shows ACM Neto with 44% of voting intentions, followed by current governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), with 35%.

Unlike other states, the result in Bahia could mean maintaining alignment with the Lula government or migrating to the right-wing camp, making the state one of the most strategic disputes in 2026.

In Alagoas, the clash between Renan Filho (MDB), minister in the Lula government, and JHC (PL) outlines a direct dispute between government and opposition. A survey released by the Paraná Pesquisas institute on December 12 shows that JHC has 47.6% of voting intentions, against 40.9% for Renan Filho.

“We need to understand elections separately, and voter behavior does not have this coherence of electing mayors, governors and presidents with the same ideological profile”, says Luciana. “For this reason, I am not talking about changing the profile of the electorate, but about contexts that more or less influence these shifts to the right or left.”

Focus on the economy

Luciana assesses that another key point to be explored by candidates who wish to perform well in the Northeast will be the focus on the region’s new economic performance.

With the creation of the Northeast Consortium and new international partnerships signed, the region is moving — quickly — towards becoming the country’s new technological and clean energy transition hub.

“It will be a very big mistake for candidates who do not take advantage of this opportunity. And I say this thinking about those candidates with more right-wing ideology, who have had difficulty changing the behavior of these voters”, he states.

“The states of the Northeast are very strategic for the country’s economic development. To win over this electorate, it will be necessary to incorporate this reality into campaign proposals that advance this growth project, while reducing regional asymmetries”, says the political scientist

Antagonism to the North

If the Northeast is the region that decides the presidential elections in Brazil, the North has been the handbrake used by Bolsonarism in an attempt to balance the political game.

Both regions have in common the highest poverty rates in the country and territorial proximity. So, what explains such an antagonistic ideological separation?

For Luciana, despite the economic similarities to a certain extent, it is necessary to understand the political formation of the states and how small territorial differences, such as the distance between capitals, enhance the creation of different electoral profiles.

“The process of training leaders in the Northeast, with the exception of Pará, was closely linked to conservative elites. The Northeast was conservative, but from 2002 onwards, with investments not only in the assistance area, but also in the structure, made by PT administrations, this electorate was able to evaluate the issues from a different experience”, he states.

“This transformative influence did not occur in the North. In this region, we had the expansion of evangelicalism and weapons oligarchies. This conservatism today is very difficult to break”, says the political scientist.