“Trump’s tariff accelerates Bolsonaro’s path toward prison,” says LCA
The last days have evidenced a possible new climbing in tensions between Brazil and the US, culminating in the operation against former President Jair Bolsonaro on Friday (18).
In a statement where the causes and consequences of this operation, the LCA Consultores’ political analysis team pointed out that “Trump’s tariff accelerated Bolsonaro’s path toward prison.”
“The use of an electronic anklet and the restrictive measures imposed on him by Minister Alexandre de Moraes, with the backing of most ministers of the First Class of the Supreme Court, is already a kind of house arrest. It is also the confirmation that the pressure of Trump and the US government will not deliver Bolsonaro from the almost a new judicial conviction, nor will he put him in a position to dispute the presidency of the Republic,” the political analysts point out, “said political analysts home.
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In the LCA’s view, the US government’s decision to suspend the visas of 7 STF ministers and their direct relatives as a reprisal to the decision to submit Bolsonaro to the use of the electronic anklet accentuated the political aspect of the fare and further narrow the paths for a negotiation between the two countries. Another signage is that there may be a climb of measures against Brazil and Brazilian authorities, against which the Lula government has little to do.
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“The Supreme will not suspend the lawsuit against Bolsonaro, nor will it be innocent because of Trump government measures. And the possibility of Congress approving a broad amnesty that favors Bolsonaro has decreased rather than increasing,” LCA says.
Already looking at domestic politics, the LCA stresses that Bolsonaro’s near prison anticipated the field of the right discussion about the decision on who will represent Bolsonarism in the 2026 election.
Meanwhile, Bolsonaro’s “all or nothing” strategy, Eduardo Bolsonaro, strengthened him before the most radical wings of pockets, but distanced him from the presidential candidacy, although, according to the consultancy’s assessment, such a possibility cannot yet be completely ruled out.
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For analysts, in theory, with Eduardo Bolsonaro farther from the presidential project, Tarcisio de Freitas is strengthened as the potential candidate on the right. “However, the governor of São Paulo was scorned by the crisis of tariffs between the pockets, the business and in the center-right. In addition, if Lula’s popularity continues to grow, Tarcisio’s doubt about the convenience of changing an almost certain reelection in Sao Paulo for a much more difficult dispute against Lula,” says the team.
Michelle and Flávio Bolsonaro remain as electoral options for 2026, while Jair Bolsonaro himself can still understand that the best for his legacy is to repeat Lula’s strategy and keep his candidacy to the end, even ineligible and probably arrested.
Thus, the tariff and its consequences accentuated the environment of uncertainty about the 2026 electoral scenario, points to LCA.
