Trump’s unpreparedness to lead statistics body worries market

On August 1, shortly after the Department of Working Statistics (BLS) released a weaker employment report than expected, conservative economist EJ Antoni participated in Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast.

“Have we put someone from ours on BLS?” Bannon asked. “A Republican Maga, which President Trump to know and trust, are already running the Department of Work Statistics?”

“No, unfortunately we haven’t got there yet,” Antoni replied, adding that Erika Mcentafer, then head of the organ, was “incompetent.”

Hours later, Trump fired McTefer, accusing her, without evidence, to manipulate the job numbers against him. The following Monday, he announced that he would indicate Antoni to replace her.

“Our economy is expanding, and EJ will ensure that the disclosed numbers are honest and accurate,” Trump wrote on his social truth.

Economists from different currents have reacted with concern to the nomination – which still needs to be approved by the Senate – warning of the risk of politicization of a body historically recognized for presenting objective data on employment, inflation, wages and other indicators.

“I’ve participated in several programs with him and was impressed with two things: his inability to understand basic economy concepts and the speed with which he adopted the magician,” he wrote in X Dave Hebert, economist at the conservative American Institute for Economic Research. “I just hope the Senate will bar this.”

Antoni’s choice, 37, escapes the usual profile to command BLS, formally linked to the Department of Labor, but with a long tradition of independence. Previous commissioners usually had decades of experience in the government or at the gym.

Antoni has a doctorate in economics from Northern Illinois University and has built virtually every career in conservative Think Tanks, more recently at Heritage Foundation, where he acts as chief economist. His work focuses on tax issues such as taxes and social security, not labor and macroeconomic issues, the main focus of the BLS.

Economists point out that the lack of specific experience is not, by itself, a problem. William W. Beach, who directed the agency in Trump’s first term, also came from conservative institutions such as Heritage Foundation and, despite the initial criticism, was praised by apartisan driving.

What worries, according to experts, is Antoni’s history to distort economic statistics to support party positions. There are examples of misinterpretations of data that, if approved, will supervise. In one case, he cited the increase of people outside the workforce without considering the aging of the population; In another, it has shown to be unaware that the BLS import price index does not include the rate of tariffs.

“It demonstrates or completely ignorance of economic data and principles, or willingness to treat the public with contempt and induce it to error,” said Kyle Pomerleau, economist at the American Enterprise Institute.

The White House has stated that Antoni will “restore US trust in employment data” and that his “extensive experience as an economist” prepares him to produce accurate information for companies, families and policy makers.

Antoni is a frequent presence in, and other networks, where the Trump government praises and defends its economic results. For Pomerleau, this type of action is acceptable in political positions, but not to command an explicitly nonpartisan data organ.

Before being nominated, Antoni had already criticized the BLS, suggesting that the agency “suspends the disclosure of monthly employment reports” for considering them unfaithful. These reports are one of the main indicators used by investors and by the Federal Reserve.

White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday that the intention continues to keep the monthly disclosures.

According to economists, politicizing BLS is risky because accurate data is essential for decisions in the public and private sector. The Fed uses statistics to define interest; Social Security, to calculate annual adjustments; The IRS (US Federal Revenue) to adjust tax bands; investors, to manage wallets; and educational institutions, to guide students about careers.

“These statistics do not exist to serve a president or a government,” said Pomerleau. “These are essential data on the formulation of public and private policies. It cannot be played with this by party interest.”

Experts have rejected the hypothesis that Mcentafer has manipulated data, noting that they are produced by career servers that remain by different governments. The Commissioner has only access to the numbers after completion.

For the same reasons, many doubts that Antoni can change data immediately, even if he wanted to. “In the short term, I don’t believe he will manipulate statistics for Trump’s benefit,” said Scott Lincicome of the Cato Institute. “There are highly qualified professionals and robust processes.”

In the financial market, which depends on the BLS to guide decisions, the choice of an ideological profile worries, but some analysts prefer to wait. “He has a strong political bias, but I don’t think it’s fundamentally dishonest,” Preston Caldwell, chief economist for Morningstar, said.

Still, economists warn that a commissioner can influence the data over time, either by poorly transparent methodological changes, or by replacement of paintings. They promise to follow signs of change.

Stephen Moore of Heritage Foundation, who recommended Antoni to Trump, said the economist will not manipulate data. “He will be tried for the reliability and accuracy of the reports, and will not defraud because that would be quickly exposed,” he said.

For some, however, the damage to credibility is already done. The resignation of McTentfer soon after a weak report reinforced the distrust of part of the population about the independence of numbers.

“The only way to reduce the fear of party bias would be to indicate someone with a solid history of apartisan analysis or even critical of Trump, and he did the opposite,” said Lincicome.

Beach, former BLS councilor, said Antoni will face more difficulty in proving independence, especially for the context of the predecessor’s dismissal. “This is a more complex position today than it was on July 31,” he said. He said that when he was nominated by Trump, he made it clear that he would protect the organ of political influence. “He said he would put me between any politician and the BLS. They would have to pass me.”

Antoni’s first stage in the Senate will be at the Health, Education, Work and Pensions Commission. The president of the collegiate, Republican Bill Cassidy, supported McTentfer’s departure and said he wanted a commissioner committed to accurate and impartial data. Democratic senator Patty Murray, the commission’s opponent, was directly: “Any senator who votes to confirm this party operator will be destroying the integrity of the best economic and employment data in the country.”