US attack represents ‘clear climbing in the conflict’, analysts say
Conflict between Israel and Iran gains new contours. For Karina Stange Calandrin, IBMEC’s International Relations Professor, Trump authorized bombing raises risks, enlarges targets and reduces the space for diplomatic containment. “This signals that the US is willing to use full force in the destruction of Iranian strategic nuclear facilities,” he says.
The expert agrees that there is no formal war statement. “This is not about mobilizing troops on soil or starting an invasion. But by launching multiple bombs, including Bunker-Buster missiles, the US shows the willingness to use blunt, albeit limited force, as it has been standard in previous American interventions,” explains Karina Stange Calandrin.
Iran must respond to attacks, analysts say. The country is likely to attack US Bases in the Middle East and trigger allied militias, such as Yemen, Hezbollah, Lebanon, to reach US ships and bases in the region. “But there are no signs of land operations in the US. Iran seeks to retaliate without provoking a total war, which would lead to a devastating American response. In addition, its logistics capacity to attack US territory directly is very limited,” says the teacher of international relations.
Depending on how the conflict is climbing, Trump will have to deal with the Iranian replica and will have no option but a rejoinder. This is the assessment of Lucas de Souza Martins, professor of history of the United States at Temple University, in Philadelphia. “President Trump’s announcement on social networks signals attention to his electorate. He was elected promising that he would make it easier for confrontation, such as clashes in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine. Now, Trump, in fact, will have to deal with this charge and, as he indicates, to create a political narrative that justifies American intervention in a new focus of confrontation,” he explains.
Attack is a US way to respond to their allies. Pedro Costa Júnior, political scientist and researcher at USP (University of São Paulo) says that despite the attack, it is possible for Trump to retreat. “He does not signal that he will proclaim a war, but everything will depend on what Trump will talk about his statement today.”
Understand
Trump announced today that he authorized and performed attacks on nuclear facilities maintained by the Tehran government. “We have completed our very successful attack on Iran’s three nuclear facilities, including Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan,” the American wrote on social networks. “All aircraft are now outside Iran’s airspace. A full pump load has been launched at the main site, Fordow. All planes are on their way home safely,” he said.
