Where governors arrive strong or come under pressure — in the dispute for re-election

The first polls for state governments in 2026 begin to paint an uneven picture among the governors who could run for re-election. In some states, the current incumbents appear to have a comfortable advantage and a relatively stable scenario. In others, the situation is more fragmented, with a real risk of upset or highly competitive disputes.

Surveys released in December by the main research institutes indicate that the electoral cycle will be marked by the strength of the center-right and the right in much of the country, while the government camp maintains important strongholds, especially in the Northeast.

The picture also reveals a recurring pattern: where there is well-evaluated administrative continuity, the current governors or their groups have an advantage. In states with political wear and tear, local crises or the absence of a natural name for succession, the scenario is more fragmented and unpredictable.

Electoral scenario

In the Midwest, Mato Grosso do Sul stands out as one of the most solid cases for re-election. Governor Eduardo Riedel (PP) leads all tested scenarios by a wide margin.

Real Time Big Data research released on December 1st shows Riedel with 55% of voting intentions, against 16% for Fábio Trad (PT) and 11% for Marcos Pollon (PL). The result indicates an environment of political continuity and low competitiveness at this time.

In the Southeast, São Paulo appears as the greatest example of electoral strength among governors. Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) easily leads all the simulations in which he is tested, including against federal government ministers.

A Real Time Big Data survey released on December 2 shows the governor with 45% against 26% for Geraldo Alckmin and 49% against 22% for Fernando Haddad. The scenario indicates re-election underway and consolidation of the state in the right-wing camp.

In the Northeast, there are cases of strength and clear fragility.

Node PiauíRafael Fonteles (PT) appears as one of the best positioned governors in the country. Real Time Big Data research released on November 28 shows the governor with 64% of voting intentions, against 24% for senator Ciro Nogueira (PP).

In Sergipegovernor Fábio Mitidieri (PSD) also appears to be in a comfortable situation. A Real Time Big Data survey released on November 27th shows Mitidieri with 46%, against 22% for Valmir de Francisquinho (PL).

In states like Bahia and Alagoasthe scenario is more challenging for governors seeking re-election.

In Bahia, Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) appears behind ACM Neto (União) in the polls, repeating the polarization of 2022.

A Real Time Big Data survey released on November 26 shows ACM Neto with 44%, against 35% for the current governor, indicating a competitive race with a real risk of defeat.

In Alagoasgovernor Paulo Dantas does not appear as the protagonist of the scenario, and the central clash involves JHC (PL) and Renan Filho (MDB), which weakens the position of the current group in power and exposes the state to a possible change in political alignment.

In the South, Santa Catarina stands out as one of the most favorable cases for re-election. Governor Jorginho Mello (PL) leads comfortably.

Real Time Big Data research released on December 4 shows Mello with 48% of voting intentions, against 22% for João Rodrigues (PSD) and 14% for Décio Lima (PT). The result indicates maintenance of the state in the right field.

The general panorama shows that, among the governors who could run for re-election in 2026, there is a group that arrives clearly strengthened — such as Tarcísio de Freitas, Rafael Fonteles, Eduardo Riedel and Jorginho Mello — and another that enters under pressure from competitive opponents or political wear and tear.