World should break new record for hottest year in 2024
The global average surface air temperature from January to September 2024 was 1.54°C above the pre-industrial average, driven by an El Niño warming event.
The document highlights that one or more individual years exceeding 1.5°C does not necessarily mean that “pursuing efforts to limit temperature increases to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”, as stated in the Agreement on Paris, be out of reach.
Exceeding the warming levels mentioned in the Paris Agreement should be understood as exceeding over a prolonged period, normally decades or more.
Even so, the report highlights that the ambitions of the Paris Agreement are in “great danger”.
“As monthly and annual warming has temporarily exceeded 1.5°C, it is important to emphasize that this does not mean we have failed to meet the Paris Agreement target of keeping the long-term increase in global average surface temperature well below 2° C above pre-industrial levels and seek efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C”, said Celeste Saulo.
The head of the agency explained that global temperature anomalies recorded on daily, monthly and annual time scales are prone to large variations, in part due to natural phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña. They should not be equated with the long-term temperature goal set out in the Paris Agreement, which refers to sustained global temperature levels as an average over decades.
It is essential to recognize that every fraction of a degree of warming matters. Whether at a level below or above 1.5°C of warming, each additional increment of global warming increases climate extremes, impacts and risks.
Celeste Saulo, Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization
Emissions
The report also points out that greenhouse gases reached record levels in 2023 and will continue to increase in 2024. “The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) increased from around 278 ppm in 1750 to 420 ppm in 2023, an increase 51%. This retains heat and causes temperatures to rise,” he said.
