States most exposed to the US market may lose more than $ 19 billion with tariff

The new round of import tariffs announced by the United States-scheduled to take effect next Friday, August 1-is expected to reach the economy of several Brazilian states, with potential impact over R $ 19 billion, according to a survey by National Confederation of Industry (CNI) based on data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC). The measure, considered aggressive and protectionist by the industrial entity, may mainly affect regions with strong commercial dependence on the US market.

Among the three states that stand out for the level of exposure to the new tariff war imposed by the United States are Ceará, Espírito Santo and Paraíba, which concentrate between 20% and 45% of their exports to the US market. Another 11 states have between 10% and 20% of external sales directed to the United States.

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“The imposition of the expressive and unjustifiable increase in American tariffs has significant impacts on the national economy, penalizing strategic productive sectors and compromising the competitiveness of Brazilian exports,” says CNI President Ricardo Alban.

Damage

– Ceará

With 44.9% of its exports directed to the United States in 2024, Ceará leads the list of the most dependent states on the US market. Most come from the transformation industry, especially the metallurgy industry, which represented US $ 441.3 million in sales. With the new rate of 50%, the estimated loss to the state is $ 190 million.

– Holy Spirit

Espírito Santo exported $ 3.1 billion to the US this year, 28.6% of the total sold abroad. The Capixaba industry is strongly impacted, especially metallurgy (US $ 1.14 billion), non -metallic minerals (US $ 680 million) and paper and paper (US $ 559 million). Losses with tariff can reach $ 605 million.

– Paraíba

In Paraíba, the United States was the second largest commercial partner, with US $ 35.6 million in exports (21.6% of the total). The food industry leads, accounting for 85% of sales. The estimated financial impact on the state is $ 101 million.

– São Paulo

The largest exporter in the country, Sao Paulo allocated US $ 13.5 billion to the United States by 2024, about 19% of the total. With 92% of sales from the transformation industry, the state could suffer from losses over R $ 4.4 billion, representing 0.13% of Paulista GDP.

Impact is higher in volume in the south and southeast

Although some northern and northeastern states are more dependent on the United States, the absolute financial weight of losses falls on the South and Southeast, which concentrates higher export volume and industrial sectors sensitive to tariffs.

– Rio Grande do Sul

With 8.4% of exports directed to the US market (US $ 1.8 billion), the state could have a loss of R $ 1.91 billion in GDP. Metal products, smoke and shoes lead the agenda.

– Paraná

Paraná exports to the US market totaled $ 1.5 billion, especially wood, food and machines. The estimated losses with the tariff reach R $ 1.91 billion, which would compromise 0.27% of state GDP.

– Santa Catarina

Although lower in volume, Santa Catarina may have the second largest proportional retraction of GDP, with a drop of 0.31% and a loss of R $ 1.7 billion. The transformation industry represents 99% of sales to the United States, especially wood, cars and electrical equipment.

– Minas Gerais

With US $ 4.6 billion exported to the United States in 2024 (3rd largest destination), Minas could lose R $ 1.6 billion, impacting 0.15% of GDP. The state mainly sells metallurgical products and food.

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Amazonas and Pará will also feel effects

Amazonas, strongly anchored at the Manaus Industrial Pole, could lose R $ 1.1 billion in value added to the economy, with a drop of 0.67% of GDP, the largest proportional impact between states.

Pará also enters the list of the most affected, with estimated losses of R $ 973 million, especially in the area of metallurgy and chemicals.

In the Midwest, Goiás, Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul should accumulate losses of R $ 1.9 billion. In the Northeast, Bahia (R $ 404 million), Pernambuco (R $ 377 million) and Ceará himself are among the most affected in the region.

Losses affect other states

Five states – Roraima, Sergipe, Acre, Piauí and Amapá – will have a more discreet financial impact, with losses of less than $ 40 million each. Roraima, for example, depends only 0.3% of its exports in the US market. Still, adding all states with lower exposure, the losses exceed R $ 1.87 billion, showing that the tariff will have broad and non -concentrated repercussions.

Challenge

The increase in tariffs exposes the vulnerability of the exporting agenda of some states and lights a warning about the need for diversification of markets and products, according to CNI. In addition, it also pressures the federal government to seek more solid trade agreements to avoid the intensification of protectionist measures.