Genial/Quaest: ACM Neto and Jerônimo technically tie in the dispute for BA

The former mayor of Salvador, ACM Neto (União), is technically tied with the current governor of Bahia, Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), in the first and second round, in a tight election scenario in the state. This is what the Genial/Quaest survey, released this Wednesday (29), points out.

In the first round scenario, ACM Neto wins 41% of voting intentions, while Jerônimo figures with 37%. The only other candidate to score is Ronaldo Mansur (PSOL), with 1%. Undecided people make up 11%, while white people and null people make up 10%.

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Due to the margin of error of 3 percentage points, plus or minus, the candidates leading the race are considered technically tied.

The second scenario, without José Estevão (DC), who did not score in the previous one, is similar: ACM Neto reaches 41% of voting intentions against 37% for Jerônimo, Mansur maintains 1%. Undecided people make up 14%, while white people and null people make up 8%.

The technical draw is repeated in a possible second round between ACM Neto and Jerônimo. The former mayor of Salvador reaches 41%, while the current governor wins 38% of voting intentions. Undecided respondents account for 12%, while white and null respondents account for 9%.

Government approval

The approval of the government led by Jerônimo Rodrigues remains positive in this round, despite a slight drop. In August 2025, 59% approved of the PT member’s leadership in Bahia; this month, approval was reduced to 56% of those interviewed.

Despite the drop within the margin of error, disapproval has remained stable since the last survey, at 33%. Those who did not know how to respond or did not respond increased from 8% to 11%, also within the margin of error.

To reach this result, the Genial/Quaest survey interviewed 1,200 voters from Bahia, between the 23rd and 27th of April. The survey’s margin of error is 3 percentage points, plus or minus. The research is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BA-03657/2026.