Lula approval follows improvement trend, points out CNT/MDA Search

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s approval rates and his government oscillated up and followed the trajectory of improvement they were drawing, pointed out CNT/MDA research released on Monday (8) amid the improvement of electorate perspectives on topics such as employment and income.

Registered oscillations demonstrate trends, but still within the error margin of 2.2 percentage points to more or less.

“We look at a consistent improvement in all areas evaluated from June to September, so in fact, the improvement of the electorate’s mood, this improvement of perceptions about these central areas, can partly justify the increase in the president’s approval, yes,” said the director of Instituto MDA, Marcelo Souza.

According to the survey, the government recorded a positive approval of 31% in September. In June, this installment corresponded to 29%, same level measured in February this year by the poll.

Those who negatively evaluate the government add up to 40%, the same portion verified in the previous round of June. In February, it was 44%.

In terms of personal performance of the president, the approval is 44%, an advance of 3 percentage points compared to June, when it was 41%. In February, it was 40%. Lula’s disapproval of the government’s performance registered 49% in September, leaving 53% in June, and 55% in February.

Lula follows better evaluated among women, the elders, the lowest income and lower education. It also has the best rates in the Northeast and among Catholics.

The survey released on Monday brings data on the expectations of the electorate. For 32% of respondents, the employment situation will improve in the country in the next six months. In June, it was 31%, and in February it was 30%. To 28%, it should get worse. In June, this slice of the electoral was equivalent to 27% and in February, to 32%.

Income should increase in the next six months in the opinion of 33%, compared to 31% in June and 29% in February; 13% believe it will get worse, the same as the previous two rounds of the research.

Blow and tariffs

The poll also asked interviewees’ positioning about the acts of January 8. According to 36.1%, they configured an attempt to coup. Another 29.5% rated them as a “protest that came out of control.” To 20%, they were but “isolated vandalism acts”.

Most interviewees-57.6%-believe that former President Jair Bolsonaro will be convicted of the ongoing trial at the Supreme Court (STF) on attempted coup and violent abolition of the rule of law, and 49.6% evaluate that “the fair is Jair Bolsonaro to be convicted.”

Asked about the 50% tariff imposed by the United States to Brazilian products exported there, 28.6% of respondents pointed out US President Donald Trump as the leading cause of tariffs.

President Lula is the main cause for 20.2%, while federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), son of the former president, is the main cause for 18%. Another 16.4% believe that the main cause is the STF Minister Alexandre de Moraes, rapporteur of cases related to Jair Bolsonaro.

The performance of Eduardo Bolsonaro in the US, which has been declared to seek from US authorities sanctions to the country with what he considers a persecution of his father, is poorly evaluated by the interviewees in this Monday’s research: 46.7% face their movements negatively, considering that he “is defending personal or family interests.” Another 25.6% evaluate the performance of the parliamentarian as positive, “because it can bring benefits to Brazil”.

The survey was conducted between September 3 and 6, with 2,002 interviewees, in 140 municipalities of the 27 federative units.