Polymarket reflects unresolved dispute on the right for 2026, says XP analyst
Political betting platforms have started to gain space on the radar of investors following the 2026 electoral scenario, but their role is still limited in shaping asset prices.
The assessment was made by XP policy analyst, Victor Scalet, during his participation in the Mapa de Risco program, the new policy program for InfoMoneyavailable this Friday (23).
When commenting on Polymarket data, which indicates an advantage for Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP) over Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) in bets on victory in 2026, Scalet stated that the market still sees the scenario as open.
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“The market has this expectation that this discussion is not over,” he said. For him, this perception appears both in bets and, in part, in recent asset movements.
The analyst, however, made a direct assessment of the weight of this type of platform. “The liquidity available in the Polymarket market is infinitely lower than what is traded on the exchange rate, what is traded on the Stock Exchange, what is traded on the interest rate curve in Brazil”, he stated.
According to Scalet, therefore, the relationship between bets and prices works in the opposite direction of what is often imagined.
Thermometer, not engine
In the analyst’s opinion, Polymarket does not determine the behavior of traditional markets.
“Asset pricing is not Polymarket determining the stock market price or the exchange rate, it tends to be the opposite,” he stated. For him, bets reflect expectations that are already being formed in the most liquid markets, and not the starting point of these evaluations.
Asked about how investors can monitor whether the market is reinforcing or reducing bets in certain electoral scenarios, Scalet highlighted two main vectors. The first is the behavior of public opinion polls, which help to identify processes of consolidation or weakening of candidacies.
The second is precisely the monitoring of betting platforms, despite their limitations. “Following Polymarket or others who do this is a good barometer, at least for us, on a daily basis, trying to extract the best information possible”, he stated. He highlighted, however, that the ideal continues to be to directly observe the prices of assets, such as exchange rates, the stock market and interest rates.
For Scalet, even with the progress of the electoral debate, the key remains the inspector. Bets help to map expectations, but the market only reacts consistently when it sees concrete implications for the trajectory of public accounts in the medium term.
