Netanyahu, decisive majority in Israeli legislative elections: appeals to Trump to eliminate the Iranian threat

IN 30 SECONDS

• What has happened? Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed a ‘clear and decisive majority’ after the Israeli legislative elections on October 27, with the count still open and none of the five exit polls granting 61 seats to any bloc.
• Who is behind? The Likud, first party with 27 seats according to three channels; Gadi Eisenkot and his Yashar formation, with 21 or 22; and Donald Trump, who endorsed Netanyahu twice in the final week of the campaign.
• What impact does it have? An Israeli government with political margin is the condition that the White House sets for a new phase against Iran. For Spain, the risk is measured in the UN contingent in Lebanon and in the price of crude oil.

Benjamin Netanyahu claims a ‘clear and decisive majority’ and already points to donald trump as a partner to eliminate the Iranian threat. The final count will not arrive for 48 hours and none of the five projections released grant the 61 seats required by the Knesset.

The prime minister spoke early in the morning to his followers in Jerusalemin the first Israeli election since the Hamas massacre of October 7, 2023. We must establish a strong right-wing national government,’ he said. ‘It’s the right thing to do.’ For him, the result demonstrates broad support for an executive committed to preserving Israel as a Jewish state.

The count that refutes the two campaigns

The numbers still do not support any victory. Network 12’s poll revision left Netanyahu’s bloc at 52 seats, the opposition of the former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot in 50 and the Arab parties in 18. The channels 13 and Kan projected a tie at 51 with the same 18 Arab seats. Channel 14, openly favorable to the prime minister, reached 60; i24NEWS stayed at 55.

What the five projections did agree on is that the Likud It is the party with the most votes, with 27 seats according to channels 11, 12 and 13, and in which yasharEisenkot’s formation, remains at 21 or 22. The arithmetic of the unicameral Knesset — 120 deputies, 61 to govern — turns that advantage into a cage.

The night left a statement that in any other democracy would have closed the campaign. Eisenkot asked Netanyahu to accept defeat: ‘A worthy leader would accept the people’s vote of no confidence and announce his retirement from politics today.’

Naftali Bennettwhose pact with Yair Lapid remained at 12 seats, went further: ‘Netanyahu has lost and the October 7 government is going home.’ The prime minister responded by accusing the television stations of having sunk the Likud in the previous polls – he gave them 18 or 19 seats – to demobilize his electorate. ‘They knew from the beginning that it was a lie,’ he said of the ‘propaganda channels.’

In Israel, whoever wins the elections does not govern: whoever has 61 seats out of 120 governs. And this morning no one had them.

With the Arab parties at their all-time high due to the increase in participation, Netanyahu closed the door to any executive that depends on these formations. ‘We must not, in any way, endanger Israel with a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties,’ he warned, before accusing them of supporting Hamas. The numbers from channel 12 corroborate this: 50 seats for the opposition plus the 7 for Mansour Abbas’s Islamist party give 57, four below the majority. The vote of soldiers and reservists, still unscrutinized, can move this distribution.

The support of donald trump has been the other silent protagonist. The president of the United States spoke twice in the last week of the campaign in favor of Netanyahu, and the prime minister returned the gesture with the most political phrase of the night: ‘Israel is facing a historic, once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, together with our partner President Trump, to eliminate once and for all the existential threat of Iran.’

In his speech he considered the dome of Hamas and of Hezbollah and even considered the Iranian supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, eliminated, a point that no independent source has confirmed. ‘Iran is weaker than ever and Israel is stronger than ever’he summarized. He added a warning: ‘This is not over as long as this fanatical regime exists.’

What Spain is at stake: blue helmets in Lebanon and the price of crude oil

Madrid look at this account from an uncomfortable position. The Spanish contingent in the UN mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is deployed in the Eastern sector, one of the most exposed areas if the confrontation with Iran and its allies reopens in the north. Any new military phase requires reviewing the protection of these positions and the relief schedule.

The second impact channel is energetic. Spain imports practically all the crude oil and a good part of the gas it consumes, and the price of Brent is the fastest thermometer of any tension in the Gulf. An escalation that would affect traffic the Strait of Hormuz In weeks it would be transferred to families’ bills and industry costs.

There is a third level, diplomatic. Relations between Spain and Israel are going through their worst moment in decades since the recognition of the Palestinian State in May 2024, and a closed Israeli coalition does not invite us to expect a turnaround. For the EU, the question is whether Brussels holds a common position or if each capital negotiates on its own. The Elcano Royal Institute has warned of the cost of this fragmentation. A second-order trade partner for Spain takes a lower role in the face of energy risk.

Washington Logic

The question that matters in Washington It’s not who wins Jerusalembut who you can work with. For decades, the White House has preferred a stable Israeli interlocutor and has looked coldly on weak or dependent executives from formations it does not control. Bill Clinton openly opted for Isaac Rabin in 1992 against Isaac Shamir and repeated the gesture with Ehud Barak in 1999. It is not an American anomaly: it is the manual.

The problem the administration is trying to solve is concrete. The operations of recent months have damaged a good part of the Iranian military leadership, but they have not closed the file. According to information published in the last few hours, the State Department is preparing regional partners for possible new action against Iran after the November midterm elections; The White House has not announced any operations. For this scenario, an Israeli government with political margin is needed, not a coalition that breaks up in the first vote.

The coalition that supports this logic in the Republican Party It is the same as always: the evangelical base, the big pro-Israel donors and the foreign policy wing of the Senate. The risk is also the same as always. Israel held five elections in less than four years between 2019 and 2022, and a 51-51 tie is the perfect scenario for the sixth. If no one adds 61, Isaac Herzog It will open consultations with parliamentary groups and there may not be a government until well into 2027.

Case File

• The case: Netanyahu claims a decisive majority after the Israeli legislative elections on October 27, without any projection reaching 61 seats in the Knesset, and plans with Trump a new phase against Iran.
• Key data: Channel 12: 52-50-18. Channels 13 and Kan: tie at 51. Channel 14: 60. i24NEWS: 55. Likud, first party with 27 seats; Yashar, 21 or 22. Final count in 48 hours.
• For Spain: The risk is concentrated in the UN contingent in Lebanon, in the price of crude oil and in an already deteriorated bilateral relationship with Israel, with no room to wait for an immediate turnaround.