Autocratic regimes vs. democracies: What the numbers say

London – Around 5.7 billion people, or 71% of the world’s population, live in autocratic regimes. It is the 15th consecutive year in which the number exceeds that of those living in democracies.

The data is part of the Democracy Report, a large-scale study carried out by the Swedish organization V-Dem Institute, at the University of Gothenburg.

V-Dem director Staffan Lindberg stated that freedom of expression was the most affected component in the global process of erosion of democracy in recent years, and pointed to disinformation as a strong influence on this result.

It worsened in 35 countries in 2023. Next, the most affected democratic components were the fairness of electoral processes and freedom of association.

Where democracy is most threatened

Democratic decline is most pronounced in Eastern Europe and South and Central Asia, while Latin America and the Caribbean buck the global trend.

Of the countries surveyed, 91 were classified as democracies and 88 as autocracies, but the population living in the latter is much larger than in the former.

The map shows the situation in 2023. The stronger the blue, the stronger the democracy. The stronger the red, the more closed the autocracy.

Regime Changes

A third of the countries surveyed (60) were identified as experiencing a regime transition.

• Processes to reinforce autocratic components are underway in 42 countries, where around 35% of the global population lives.
• India, with 18% of the world’s population, accounts for around half of the population living in countries in the process of autocratization.
• Processes to reinforce democratic components occur in 18 countries, where only 5% of the world’s population lives.
• Brazil accounts for more than half of the countries in the process of strengthening democracy.

In 20 years, from 2003 to 2023, the number of countries in the process of autocratization almost quadrupled, from 11 to 42, while the number in the process of strengthening democratic components fell by half, from 35 to 18.

Portrait of countries that held elections in 2024

Elections are considered by V-Dem researchers as critical events that can trigger democratization or reinforce it, or, on the other hand, pave the way for autocratization or stabilize autocratic regimes.

Of the 34 countries that held elections in 2024, the research reveals that 31 of them worsened their democratic levels.

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Liberal democracy is the most common regime and electoral autocracies are the ones that shelter the most people

Of the total 71% of the global population that lives in autocracies, the study points out that the majority, corresponding to a portion of 44%, reside in electoral autocracies, which includes populous countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Russia, the Philippines and Turkey.

The other portion, 27%, lives in closed autocracies, such as countries with large populations such as China, Iran, Myanmar and Vietnam.

On the other hand, despite being the most common type of regime in the world, 59 electoral democracies host only 16% of the world’s population. Brazil is included in this category.

The 32 liberal democracies account for 13% of the world’s population. The United States is by far the largest liberal democracy, representing 4% of the world’s population and about a third of the total population of this regime type.

The vast majority of Latin Americans (86%) live in electoral democracies, such as Argentina and Brazil, and 4% live in liberal democracies, such as Chile and Uruguay. The only autocratic regimes in Latin America classified as such by the study are those of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, where 10% of the region’s population lives.

Although considered electoral democracies, Mexico, Guatemala, Guyana and Honduras are Latin American countries considered by the study to be in a “gray zone”, due to the uncertainty of this classification.

Disinformation and autocratic regimes

Professor Staffan Lindberg explains that the dissemination of misinformation is used to polarize the electorate, in order to divide it and then control it.

‘Would-be dictators spread disinformation at home and abroad.’

The full report can be seen here

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