“Benefits” from the government total up to R$190 billion; impact on GDP is 1.4 pp, says XP

If family debt and high interest rates are slowing consumption, the government comes with a package of measures to ease Brazilians’ pockets. A report by XP’s Macro Research and Policy teams, released this Wednesday (20), points out that credit and income stimuli can generate a potential impact of up to 1.4 percentage points on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 2026, totaling almost R$190 billion.

XP points out that the government is accelerating the dissemination of these measures due to election year rules. In one month, four announcements were made, which must be made viable by July 4th to avoid running into the limitations of the election. From this date onwards, restrictions on conduct during the election period begin to come into effect, making new launches unfeasible.

Among the actions already announced, the most recent highlight was aimed at app drivers and taxi drivers, who will have access to subsidized credit of up to R$30 billion. The package from recent weeks also includes financing for the renewal of truck and bus fleets, a line for agricultural machinery, and the relaunch of the debt renegotiation program, the new Desenrola.

Income and credit incentives
Initiative	R$ billion	Impact on GDP (pp)
IRPF reform (exemption and discounts)	33.5	0.25
Credit for app drivers and taxi drivers *	30.0	0.22
Consigned credit for private sector workers	28.0	0.21
Debt renegotiation program (Desenrola 2.0)	22.0	0.16
Sovereign Brazil Program – subsidized credit for companies	21.0	0.15
Credit for renewing truck and bus fleets (Move Brasil 1 and 2)	20.5	0.15
New Real Estate Credit	10.0	0.07
Credit for residential renovations (Reforma Casa Brasil)	9.5	0.07
Expansion of the Minha Casa Minha Vida program (Tracks 3 and 4)	8.0	0.06
Subsidies on electricity bills for low-income families (Luz do Povo)	4.5	0.03
Gas voucher for low-income families (Gás do Povo)	1.7	0.01
Total	188.7	1.38

Also read: Retreat of 0.67% in the ‘GDP preview’ in March shows pressure from Selic and brakes ahead

New phase of Desenrola and focus on civil construction

In the coming weeks, the government should make at least two new fronts viable. The first is the second stage of Desenrola, which this time will focus on account holders non-compliant (who have their bills up to date), with the aim of freeing up disposable income in the short term.

The second is a new stimulus for civil construction, through the National Strategy for Industrialized Construction, which will receive the “Constrói Mais Brasil” seal and aims to accelerate the delivery of homes under the Minha Casa Minha Vida program.

Find out more: Brazilian’s record income is swallowed up by debt and interest, shows CLP study

Real impact: R$190 billion reaching the economy?

Despite the significant values, the XP report emphasizes that the impact of the R$ 190 billion announced represents a maximum limit of the measures.

According to XP, the net effect of the announcements on the 2026 GDP tends to be less than 1.4 pp, since not all the resources made available in the new credit lines tend to be effectively taken up by the public.

Also read: UN: Brazil’s economy is expected to slow down; GDP growth forecast for 2026 is 2%

Growth projection and risk balance

Still, even if the money does not reach the economy, a relevant portion will be translated into consumption and investment.

For analysts, this means that the current projection of 2.0% growth for GDP gains a strong extra driver, with the balance of risks becoming asymmetrical upwards, even offsetting the noise from external inflationary pressures.