CNT/MDA: Lula leads 1st round and wins all 2nd round scenarios, says survey
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads voting intentions in the first round and appears ahead of all opponents in possible direct disputes in the second round. This is what the most recent research from the MDA Institute shows, contracted by the National Transport Confederation (CNT) and released this Tuesday (14).
This is the first time that the survey tests the name of senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), who in the previous round, held in November 2025, had not yet declared a pre-candidacy for the Presidency.
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In the first round, Lula has 39.2% of voting intentions, against 30.2% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Next come the former governor of Goiás Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), with 4.6%, and the former governor of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema (Novo), with 3.3%.
See the numbers from the first round:
- Lula (PT) — 39.2%
- Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) — 30.2%
- Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) — 4.6%
- Romeu Zema (New) — 3.3%
- Renan Santos (Mission) — 1.8%
- Aldo Rebelo (DC) — 1.5%
- Blank/null — 10.4%
- Undecided — 8.9%
In a possible second round, the survey shows that Lula would have 44.9%, against 40.2% for Flávio Bolsonaro. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, plus or minus.
The CNT/MDA survey also tested other second-round scenarios between Lula and names on the right. In all of them, the PT member appears ahead, with an advantage of at least 10 percentage points.
Check it out:
Scenario 2
- Lula (PT) — 44.4%
- Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) — 32.7%
- Blank/null — 15.2%
- Undecided — 7.7%
Scenario 3
- Lula (PT) — 45.2%
- Romeu Zema (New) — 31.6%
- Blank/null — 15.9%
- Undecided — 7.3%
Scenario 4
- Lula (PT) — 45.4%
- Aldo Rebelo (DC) — 29.1%
- Blank/nulls — 17.5%
- Undecided — 8%
Scenario 5
- Lula (PT) — 45%
- Renan Santos (Mission) — 28.3%
- Blank/null — 17.7%
- Undecided — 9%
The CNT/MDA survey interviewed 2,002 people between April 8 and 12, 2026. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, plus or minus. The survey was registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-02847/2026.
