Elections 2024: who leads the dispute for mayors in the 26 capitals

More than 155 million Brazilians will be able to go to the polls this Sunday (4) to choose their ticket. mayor and deputy mayor who will command their cities for the next 4 years, in addition to their representatives in the respective Municipal Chambers.

For the first time in history, all 26 state capitals will be able to have a second round, but the tendency is that in most of them the new head of the Executive Branch at the local level will be known this evening, at the end of the results calculation − given the chances high probability of one of the candidates achieving an absolute majority of votes.

A compilation made by InfoMoney based on the most recent voting intention surveys, released on Saturday (5) by the Datafolha and Quaest institutes, also shows a probability of re-election in some cases.

According to the survey, in at least 16 capitals there are mayors who are seeking a new term with good competitive conditions, at the forefront of the disputes, in a technical tie for leadership or occupying second place in elections that must go to the second round.

In the 14 cases with a good chance of being defined in the first round, 12 involve mayors seeking re-election. These are the cases of Macapá (AP), with Dr. Furlan (MDB); from Recife (PE), with João Campos (PSB); Salvador (BA), with Bruno Reis (União Brasil); and Rio de Janeiro (RJ), with Eduardo Paes (MDB), for example.

Among those that must have a second round, mayors David Almeida (Avante), in Manaus (AM); Fuad Noman (PSD), in Belo Horizonte (MG); Adriane Lopes (PP), in Campo Grande (MS); and Ricardo Nunes (MDB). The last three face very tough competitions and are still at serious risk of falling by the wayside.

See the status of the dispute for city halls in the 26 capitals, according to the most recent surveys released (the names in purple are incumbents seeking re-election):

It is worth remembering that no electoral survey is definitive, nor does it aim to predict the outcome of a dispute. The intention expressed by a voter in a survey carried out days before an election may not necessarily be confirmed in a vote on the voting date. Even more so considering the increasingly late tendency for voters to decide to vote.

It is also important to highlight that all research has a margin of error and confidence interval — concepts discussed below and that need to be considered when interpreting the results.

Therefore, it is recommended to frequently follow the work published by a variety of institutes with a good reputation in the market and monitor trends based on the evolution of data. It has even become a cliché in the field to say that the film often matters more than the photograph of a specific moment.

Another point to be noted are the methodological differences adopted by research companies. In a context of deep political polarization, analyzing data sparingly is crucial to avoid slip-ups or mistaken conclusions.

Also read: Are electoral polls reliable? Understand the different methodologies applied by institutes

The strength of mayors

The favoritism of several incumbents seeking re-election across the country has been a particularity of the 2024 election highlighted by political scientists since the party conventions phase, which took place between July and August. One of the reasons for this is the favorable approval ratings of many mayors, according to polls.

As experts from the consultancy Eurasia Group point out, historically, mayors have more difficulty being re-elected than governors or presidents. While the re-election rate has been 69% for the first group and 75% for the second, says the consultancy, that of mayors is around 59%.

For experts from the consultancy Arko Advice, if the trend observed in the polls is confirmed at the polls, there is a good chance that the reappointment rate in the current election will approach 70% in the capitals — which would be the highest in history.

A factor that also contributes to the good performance of incumbents is a favorable financial moment for city halls in general, with growing revenue and high transfers from the federal government, which contribute to the provision of services to voters at the end.

Exceptions to the tendency in favor of the continuation of these elections are the responsibility of names such as Dr. Pessoa (PRD), mayor of Teresina (PI), Rogério Cruz (Solidariedade), of Goiânia (GO) and Edmilson Rodrigues (PSOL), of Belém (PA ).

The three have shown poor performance in polls of voting intentions and high rejection rates, which reduces the room for surprises for their campaigns in the final sprint.