Government reduces 2024 primary deficit forecast by R$1 billion
The Extemporaneous Revenue and Expense Report, released by the Ministry of Planning on Friday night (29), brought a review of the primary deficit projection for the year, which rose to R$ 27.746 billion, close to the target floor which is of R$28.756 billion.
The Central Government’s primary result target this year is a neutral result, 0% of GDP, as established by the new fiscal framework, which provides for a tolerance band of 0.25 percentage points.
The new result is a little better than that projected in the 5th two-month Report, released on November 22nd, which brought a primary deficit of R$28.737 billion as a result of the year. The gap between the two projections is R$989.8 million.
The “improvement” in the primary result was possible thanks to the new revenue forecast with the Desenrola Agências Reguladoras program. In the 5th two-month report, the government withdrew R$4 billion from the action.
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In this extemporaneous document, the ministry decided to change the projection after information sent by the Federal Attorney General’s Office (PGF) “about the expected inflow of program resources”.
The report points out that “a high probability of inflow of resources in the amount of approximately R$ 2.7 billion was indicated in the year 2024. This is, therefore, the only change regarding primary revenues in relation to the estimates presented in the Report of 5th two months, constituting the main factor that contributed to the reduction of the primary deficit observed to meet the target”, says the document.
The document also brought a small review of extraordinary credits that are not computed for the primary result – expenses with the calamity in Rio Grande do Sul, climate emergency and ruling by the Federal Court of Auditors for past expenses of the Judiciary. These credits now total R$36.679 billion, compared to R$36.566 billion in the report released a week ago – the difference is R$112.7 billion.
As a result, the primary result below the line, as in the Central Bank’s methodology, was a projected deficit for the year of R$64.426 billion, up from R$65.303 billion in the report a week earlier.
