Marçal would go to the second round with Lula, leaving Tarcísio behind, says Quaest

At the end of September, before the first round of municipal elections, Quaest carried out a national voting intention survey simulating an electoral framework for the presidency of Brazil. The survey considered a scenario “if the election were held today”, with candidates Lula, Pablo Marçal and Tarcísio de Freitas, “who would you vote for?”

The result showed that Marçal does not divide the right just in São Paulo, but across the country. The coach came out ahead of Tarcísio de Freitas in the result, indicating that he would go to the second round with Lula’s president.

Lula obtained 32% of voting intentions, Marçal received 18% and the governor of São Paulo totaled 15%. Blanks and nulls and “I don’t know” totaled 18%. The data was released by columnist Lauro Jardim.

The Quaest survey was carried out between September 25th and 29th, with 2,000 voters for a national research scenario.

The data shows that Marçal surpassed Tarcísio in all regions of the country, except in the Southeast, where he received the support of 16% of voters, against 20% for Tarcísio. Lula wins the coach in all regions, although in the South there was a tie within the margin of error: 25% to 23%.

Bolsonaro’s successor

Marçal also does better than Tarcísio in voters’ choice of a successor to Bolsonaro.

Faced with the question “if Bolsonaro is not a candidate, who is the strongest candidate against Lula?”, the coach appears numerically ahead, with 15%, in a technical tie with Tarcísio (13%) and Michelle Bolsonaro (12%).

Marçal beats Tarcísio in all regions of Brazil, except the Southeast. Ratinho Júnior, Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado appear with 4%, 3% and 4%, respectively.

In the May edition of this survey, Michelle Bolsonaro came out ahead of all options with 28% of voters’ choices, showing a significant advance by Marçal during the electoral campaign in São Paulo. “Don’t know” and “didn’t answer” account for more than all, at 49% of the total.