Means/Idea: more than half of voters can still change candidates in the elections
The April Meio/Ideia survey reveals an electorate that may change its voting option in the 2026 presidential race. According to the survey, 51.4% of those interviewed say they may change candidates by October. The data represents an increase compared to January, when only 35.5% admitted this possibility.
Volatility is greater in the right-wing camp, which concentrates the largest number of pre-candidates in the dispute. Among Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) voters, 60.4% admit that they can change candidates, a figure that rises to 69.4% among Ronaldo Caiado (PSD). In the PT camp, the proportion drops to 26.6%.
Seven out of ten Brazilians say that the cost of living has increased, says Meio/Ideia
The topic is a central target for the government at the beginning of the year, which is studying ways to contain the population’s indebtedness
The trend deepened month by month: 38% in February, 42.5% in March. In April, for the first time, the undecided surpassed the decided, who fell from 64.5% in January to 48.6%.
Released after the end of the party window, the survey shows Lula leading the stimulated scenario, with 40.4%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro, with 37%. Ronaldo Caiado appears in third, with 6.5%, and Renan Santos (Missão) and Romeu Zema (Novo) tie with 3% each.
In the second round, the most balanced confrontation is that of Lula with Flávio Bolsonaro: 45.5% to 45.8%, a difference of 0.3 percentage points, within the margin of error of 2.5 points. Against Caiado, Lula scores 45% compared to 39% for the governor of Goiás.
Right-wing fragmentation also appears in spontaneous intention. Jair Bolsonaro, ineligible, still has 6%, which indicates that part of the Bolsonaro electorate did not migrate to his son. Tarcísio de Freitas appears with 2.3%, without a confirmed candidacy.
“From January to now, Brazilians started to become more insecure about voting. And it is on the right that voters are particularly volatile”, said Pedro Doria, journalism director at Meio.
Uncertainty has a background. Seven in ten Brazilians (70.4%) say that the cost of living has risen in the last year, 40% are more in debt than a year ago and 74.7% consider the issue to be decisive or important when voting. The evaluation of the Lula government reflects this discontent: 46.4% consider it to be bad or terrible in general, a figure that rises to 53.9% in the public security section.
The survey also measures the electorate’s mood about institutions. For 42.5% of those interviewed, the biggest threat to Brazilian democracy is the concentration of power in the Judiciary – ahead of political corruption (16.5%), polarization (13%) and disinformation (9.7%). On the issue of amnesty for those involved in January 8th, 41% reject any form of pardon. Those in favor total 53%, but are divided: 32% defend broad amnesty, with Jair Bolsonaro and the military included, and 21% accept amnesty only for convicted protesters, excluding leaders.
The survey was carried out between April 3 and 7 with 1,500 respondents across the country. It is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under protocol BR-00605/2026-BRASIL. The confidence interval is 95% and the margin of error is 2.5 percentage points.
