Polarization can push center and center-right parties towards neutrality

With the prospect of a new election marked by polarization between PT and Bolsonarism, center and center-right parties began to discuss the possibility of adopting a position of neutrality at the national level, giving up formal support for any candidacy.

The strategy would allow state directories to be free to align themselves with the candidate most compatible with local realities.

Allies of the senator and pre-candidate for president Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), consulted privately, minimize the possibility and treat the parties’ neutrality speech as “normal”. For them, the strategy serves to avoid anticipating support and losing the negotiating margin.

The president of MDB, Baleia Rossi, admitted this possibility in an interview with Estadão last week. “If you ask me: today, if there is an absolutely polarized election, I think the MDB’s tendency is really, at a national level, to release it,” said the federal deputy.

The assessment of neutrality depends, in part, on regional differences within the parties, as occurs in the MDB itself. In the Northeast and part of the North, the party tends to align itself with the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), while in the Center-West, South and Southeast there is greater resistance to an alliance with the PT. In this sense, not supporting a candidate is a way to reconcile these differences.

Other subtitles also have this path in mind. The national president of Progressistas (PP), Ciro Nogueira, stated that the party’s position, which will soon have its federation with União Brasil formalized, “will depend on Flávio’s campaign”. Asked whether the senator’s lack of nods to the center could lead the party to neutrality, Ciro responded in the affirmative.

Another PP leader said, with reservations, that Flávio has shown signs that he may opt for polarization – such as indicating that he could appoint his brother, Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL), as Minister of Foreign Affairs. There is fear that the strategy will be repeated when choosing the vice president.

If the name is displeasing, the tendency is for the party to release state directories. The main effect would be to expand the room for maneuver for PP candidates in the Northeast, with more space for alliances with the center and left. This would benefit the president of the party himself and also the Minister of Sports, André Fufuca (PP-MA), who was punished last year for continuing in the Lula government.

Federal deputy Elmar Nascimento, from União Brasil da Bahia, assesses that the federation’s tendency is to give autonomy to state directorates. “I consider it most likely to release the States, because it strengthens the position in the States and expands the bench (in Congress)”, maintains the parliamentarian.

At the end of last year, União Brasil even expelled the then Minister of Tourism, Celso Sabino, after he failed to comply with the party’s decision and did not hand over his position. Nine days later, however, Sabino ended up being fired from the government, and the party nominated his successor: the former secretary of Tourism and Economic Development of Paraíba Gustavo Feliciano, son of federal deputy Damião Feliciano (União-PB) and ally of the president of the Chamber, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB).

As shown by the Estadão At the time, despite União Brasil having broken with the Palácio do Planalto, approximately 25 of the party’s 59 deputies still voted with the government. This share of the bench made Sabino’s departure conditional on continuing to vote with the government. The president accepted the suggestion precisely in a gesture to the government wing of the Union, which will seek support this year.

A Lula minister told the report that the president is waiting for at least the neutrality of the acronyms that command ministries, including to bang the gavel on platforms in the states. This ally states that the task is not easy and that achieving this position from the MDB would already be a victory.

The Republicans’ mystery

The Republicans, in turn, are unknown. Its president, federal deputy Marcos Pereira (SP), has a good relationship with the Lula government, at the same time that the party’s main cadre today is the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), who reiterated on Thursday, the 15th, his support for Flávio.

Members of the Republicans claim that the party has not yet officially discussed who it will support (or not) in October. Behind the scenes, however, Pereira’s allies believe that Flávio will not be able to unite the center and will have difficulty receiving support from the party, although the hypothesis cannot be ruled out.

The president of the Chamber, Hugo Motta (PB), second in command of the Republicans as 1st vice-president, is one of the members of the party who regionally can benefit from support from President Lula.

At the beginning of the week, he stated that he will wait for “gestures” from the PT member before defining his position in the national dispute and highlighted that any definition involves a logic of political reciprocity and the construction of a project that meets the interests of Paraíba.