Real Time Big Data: Lula leads in all scenarios and Flávio rises to 30% without Tarcísio

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads all first-round scenarios in the dispute for the Presidency of the Republic this year, but senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) comes in second and closes the gap, scoring at least 30%. This is what the most recent Real Time Big Data survey, released this Monday (9), shows.

This month’s survey no longer considers the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), as a candidate for the presidential elections, after recent reaffirmation that he will run for re-election in the state.

In the first scenario, Lula appears with 39% of voting intentions. The PT member is followed by Flávio, with 30% and by the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Jr (PSD), who has 10%.

Check the numbers:

• Lula (PT): 39%
• Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 30%
• Ratinho Jr. (PSD): 10%
• Romeu Zema (New): 3%
• Aldo Rebelo (DC): 2%
• Renan Santos (Mission): 1%
• Null/Blank: 7%
• Don’t know/Didn’t answer: 8%

In the same scenario in December, shortly after the announcement of Flávio’s pre-candidacy, Lula emerged with 35% of voting intentions, while Flávio accumulated only 17% of voters in his name. In this edition, candidate Ronaldo Caiado still appeared as an electoral member of União Brasil and received 5% of the votes.

2nd scenario

For this round, the research considered a different candidate in the dispute for the PSD in each electoral scenario. Currently, the party has three pre-candidates for president: Ratinho Jr (PR), Ronaldo Caiado (GO) and Eduardo Leite (RS).

In the second scenario, with governor Ronaldo Caiado in Ratinho’s place, Lula appears with 40%, followed by Flávio with 32% and the PSD candidate with 6%.

Check it out:

• Lula (PT): 40%
• Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 32%
• Eduardo Leite (PSD): 5%
• Romeu Zema (New): 4%
• Aldo Rebelo (DC): 3%
• Renan Santos (Mission): 1%
• Null/Blank: 7%
• Don’t know/Didn’t answer: 8%

3rd scenario

Finally, in a test with the name of the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite (PSD), Lula appears with 40%, Flávio with 32% and Eduardo with 5%. In this scenario there is a technical difference in fourth place between the governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema, with 4%, and the pre-candidate Aldo Rebelo (DC), with 3%.

Check it out:

• Lula (PT): 40%
• Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 32%
• Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 6%
• Romeu Zema (New): 4%
• Aldo Rebelo (DC): 2%
• Renan Santos (Mission): 1%
• Null/Blank: 7%
• Don’t know/Didn’t answer: 8%

The Real Time Big Data survey interviewed 2,000 voters in the 27 federative units, between the 6th and 7th of February. The survey’s margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The research is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-06428?2026