Why the oil shock caused by the war in Iran is worse than you think
If you search for the price of oil on Google, you will probably find two widely published values for oil: one in the United States and another in Europe.
These prices, which change all the time on electronic markets, suggest that while the war with Iran has made energy much more expensive, the situation is nowhere near as dire as it was four years ago, after Russia invaded Ukraine.
But if you needed a tanker full of oil — and urgently — that would be much more expensive.
Oil falls more than 12% in the week after ceasefire between US and Iran
Both contracts have lost about 12% this week after Iran and the US agreed on Tuesday to a ceasefire
US should extend Russian oil exemption to ease shock from war with Iran
Two sources told Reuters that the US government is expected to extend the exemption later this Friday
On Tuesday, before President Donald Trump said that the United States and Iran had reached a ceasefire agreement, one of the most cited prices, Brent (the European reference), was at around US$109 per barrel. Well below the highs of 2022, when a barrel briefly surpassed US$130, without adjustment for inflation.
But in the market where energy companies buy and sell liquid oil transported on ships, the price was almost $145 per barrel — a record and more than double the level before the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, according to , which tracks commodity prices.
How the war in Iran affected the market
| Active | Price 02/27 | Price 04/10 | Variation (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Oil (US$) | 72.48 | 96.57 | +44.09% |
| WTI Oil (US$) | 67.02 | 95.20 | +31.35% |
| Ibovespa (points) | 188,787 | 197,324 | +4.52% |
| PETR4 (R$) | 39.33 | 49.03 | +24.66% |
| S&P 500 (points) | 6,878.88 | 6,816.89 | -0.90% |
The reason for the difference between the two prices is that the first, the most cited, is the futures price. It’s a financial instrument that reflects what traders think oil will be worth in a month or two and, in simple terms, it’s not much different from a stock price. The second is the so-called spot price, linked to the delivery of many tons of crude oil, which a refinery can transform into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
Spot and futures prices are rarely exactly the same, but the distance between them has increased unusually in recent weeks, to the point where industry executives and analysts say that futures prices no longer accurately reflect the size of the supply shock that the world is experiencing.
“The futures market is in no way representing the reality of oil on the ground and offshore,” said Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie Group, an Australian financial services company. “He’s pretty broken.”
Mike Wirth, CEO of Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, expressed similar concerns last month at a Houston energy conference, CERAWeek, hosted by S&P Global.
“Physical prices and physical volumes would indicate a tighter market than what the futures curve suggests,” Wirth said, referring to the futures market.
Spot and futures prices tend to move apart in times of major market disruptions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. International crises widen the difference between the value of oil today and the value in two months.
But the gap between the two prices in recent days exceeds that of any other period in the last 20 years, Argus data shows. Even energy analysts have trouble explaining why the gap is so big this time.
“It’s a mystery,” Dwivedi said.
What is clear is that the war with Iran has profoundly messed up the oil market. Estimates indicate that companies have shut off 10% or more of the world’s supply since the start of the conflict because they are unable to safely pass their tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula.
Prices have soared around the world. And some countries in Asia — highly dependent on fuel from the Persian Gulf — have even faced shortages. Gas stations in Vietnam and Thailand turned customers away claiming they had no fuel; Sri Lanka declared a holiday every Wednesday; and many other countries have mandated or encouraged remote work.
The two-week ceasefire with Iran caused oil prices to plummet in the hours following Trump’s announcement of the deal, but in practice almost nothing changed. Shipping companies remain wary of sending ships through the strait. This means that a significant share of the world’s oil remains trapped in the Persian Gulf.
“The physical price shows exactly how tight everything is right now,” said Jason Gabelman, energy analyst at investment bank TD Cowen.
