With isolated Bolsonaro, right will seek more autonomy, evaluates political scientist

The right-wing candidates who want to compete in the 2026 elections live an ambiguity between the support for Jair Bolsonaro and being able to move away from the former president. But today the rejection of Bolsonaro is on the rise, according to trends political scientist Rafael Cortez. The assessment was made after the Federal Supreme Court (STF) decreed Bolsonaro’s house arrest on Monday night (4).

Also read: The arguments used by Moraes to decree Bolsonaro’s house arrest

“The governors, for example, were not present in the demonstrations (pro-Bolsonaro, on August 3). This means a search for this removal,” the political scientist told Infomoney. According to Cortez, it will be interesting to see how the names on the right will make their own electoral movements, as there is now no communication with the former president.

Even so, the political scientist evaluates that Bolsonaro is not out of the game, even ineligible. A candidate supported by him, or his family, can be quite competitive in the 2026 elections.

Also read: After recess, Congress attention is divided between Bolsonaro’s economy and future

For Cortez, the biggest dilemma in the relationship with pockets is for the governor of São Paulo, Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans). And although Bolsonaro’s popularity is falling, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s (PT) government rejection can help a right -wing candidacy.

Check out the interview of political scientist Rafael Cortez for the Infomoney:

Infomoney – Does the new precautionary measures imposed by Minister Alexandre de Moraes weaken former President Jair Bolsonaro politically?

Rafael Cortez – The main implication of the aggravation of the precautions decided by Minister Alexandre de Moraes is in the right electoral chess. One of the characteristics that the right faces, especially candidates to take a right-wing candidacy in 2026, is an ambiguous situation with pockets and the former president. They understand that they need the former president’s support, but at the same time they need to find a separation in the face of the high rejection that Bolsonaro has with public opinion and a trend of discharge because of the consequences of the tariff issue and Donald Trump.

Im – The demonstrations last Sunday (3) joined thousands of Bolsonaro supporters. Even so, do you think this rejection trend exists on the rise?

RC – In society as a whole, it has a perception of wear. One thing does not exclude the other. Despite the increase in demonstrations of support for the former president, it also has greater rejection.

Im – Given this, how is the situation of those who want to capitalize the votes of Bolsonaro and the right that is not a pocketist?

RC – Political implication is greater than Bolsonaro. The governors, for example, were not present in the last demonstrations. This means a search for removal. Now it will be interesting to see how much these names will have greater ambition and will seek to make their respective electoral movements, as there is no communication with the former president. Bolsonaro is more isolated and therefore these names on the right can see as an opportunity to seek greater autonomy.

IM – How do you evaluate that Governor Tarcisio will react?

RC – Tarcisio is what has the greatest dilemma in this relationship with Bolsonaro, because he is perceived as a “product” of pockets. This contradiction is clearer in Tarcisio than, for example, in Eduardo Leite or Ronaldo Caiado. Leite and Caiado have a more autonomous career, despite needing the right support.

Also read: Is Bolsonaro’s house arrest decision reasonable? Jurists explain

My reading about Tarcisio is that he will make a backstage movement, still very discreet, to find this autonomy with those who have more weight, such as party leaders and great economic sectors. Publicly, he has to learn, at this moment, to dissociate himself from pockets. I do not imagine Tarcisio making any stronger manifestation on social networks regarding the precautionary (Bolsonaro’s house arrest). At this time, Tarcisio tends to be more discreet.

IM – On the other hand, a long time is missing for the election. Do you believe that a new element may still appear or the names are already put?

RC – It is a very polarized election, marked by petism versus Antipetism. What we will eventually watch – and this I think is the main uncertainty – is the behavior on the right: whether it will have a unique candidacy of antipetism or if there will be a division of the right, given the conditions that are posted. It is a more complicated scenario for this union of the right is because it has increased the reputational cost of being close to Bolsonaro in 2026.

Im – Do these measures cause wear and political weakening from Bolsonaro?

RC – I do not see a very expressive increase in rejection, because there has already been this movement. The problem is that its political influence, albeit with the same level of popularity, decreases. In my interpretation, without a Bolsonarist presidential candidacy, this influence falls faster. Playing an election, to some extent, is a way for you to prolong your political life.

Im – Can the possibility of putting Jair Bolsonaro’s wife or son as a candidate to be a way out of pockets?

RC -This can be a way out, because pockets look suspiciously at these candidates sponsored by the center right, including the Tarcisio movement, which is perceived as dangerous by pockets.

IM – An candidacy of the wife or son, even with the possibility of Bolsonaro being arrested to the elections, would still be competitive?

RC -Yes. Former President Lula’s rejection is persistently high, so it will be competitive regardless of who is the candidate for antipetism. This scenario of Bolsonaro’s sponsored candidacy in composition as a family member is an exit to maintain the influence of the former president, in this increasingly restricted scenario, but still under much uncertainty because of his legal condition.

This candidacy is politically one of the possible instruments to maintain its influence. There would be a repetition of what happened to former President Lula in 2018, but it is still necessary to follow the timing and the judgment.

In any case, the challenge of maintaining the influence of former President Bolsonaro after 2026 is still put. Centro-right applications are perceived as candidacies that endanger this Bolsonarist influence, because, once victorious, antipetism exchange names.

IM-How should the legal issue of the former president be?

RC -All legal manifestations in this field, from the position of the Attorney General’s Office to the manifestations of the members of the First Class of the Supreme Court, point in the direction of a conviction. Probably the penalty would be very high. So there is the element of loss of influence, even if we have no change in popularity. But there is a decreasing political influence, even if popularity remains in the same levels.