Eduardo Bolsonaro and Haddad lead Senate Race by SP, points Paraná Research
The last round of the survey conducted by the Paraná Research Institute, released on Tuesday (6), shows that if the election to the Senate for Sao Paulo were today, licensed federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL) and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT) would be in the lead of the dispute.
In a stimulated scenario – when the names of possible candidates are presented to respondents – Eduardo appears numerically ahead, with 36.5% of voting intentions, closely followed by Haddad, which records 32.3%. The result reveals a probable direct clash between the two main centers of Brazilian politics, with São Paulo as the epicenter of the national dispute in 2026.
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Following are names linked to the right, such as the state secretary of Security, Captain Derrite, with 23.3%, and federal deputy Ricardo Salles (Novo), former Minister of the Environment, with 13.6%.
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Among the names of the left, the Minister of Labor, Luiz Marinho (PT), appears with 10.7%. Also noteworthy are Senator Mara Gabrilli (PSD), with 10.4%, Mrs Renata Abreu (Somos), with 6.7%, Deputy Cezinha de Madureira (PSD), with 3.7%, and Senator Giordano (MDB), with 1.1%.
White, null and undecided add up to 17.6%, with 12.2% those who declare white or null vote and 5.4% those who could not answer.
The survey listened to 1,700 voters from São Paulo between May 1st and 4th, with a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points for more or less and a confidence level of 95%.
Dispute without Haddad
In an alternative scenario, without the name of Fernando Haddad in the dispute, Eduardo Bolsonaro keeps the lead, technically tied with Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), which reinforces the centrality of São Paulo in the political board of 2026.
Two seats in dispute
Each federative unit has three chairs in the Federal Senate. In 2026, two thirds of the house will be renewed, and São Paulo will elect two senators, which makes room for political arrangements and cross alliances.
The tendency is that the election of the Senate in the state will become one of the fiercest and most polarized country, directly reflecting the national dispute between the right and the left.
