Moro leads with running to the government of Paraná in all scenarios, says Futura
The former judge and current Senator Sergio Moro (União Brasil) leads the dispute for the Government of Paraná in the 2026 elections, according to a survey released on Friday (20) by the Futura Intelligence Institute.
In all scenarios of the 1st and 2nd round, Moro appears ahead of the opponents, with percentages ranging from 27.4% to 46.5%, depending on the amount of names tested.
The survey was conducted with 800 respondents between May 20 and 27, through telephone interviews (CATI). The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points, with confidence level of 95%.
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1st shift: solid advantage even with more names
In the most fragmented scenario (with 12 pre-candidates), Moro leads with 27.4%. As scenarios become leaner, the intention to vote in the senator grows, reaching 46.5% when only four names are tested.
Former governor Roberto Requião (mobilizes) figures as the main opponent in two of the four scenarios, with up to 16.7%. The current mayor of Curitiba and former Sports Minister Rafael Greca (PSD) appears up to 22.5% and grows when Requião is not included.
2nd shift: Moro wins all opponents
In the second round scenarios, Moro wins Greca, Requião, Cida Borghetti (PP), Guto Silva (PSD) and the petista Enio Verri, with a margin that exceeds 30 percentage points in some simulations.
Highlight for direct confrontation with Greca:
• Sergio Moro: 52.4%
• Rafael Greca: 29.3%
Against Enio Verri (PT), the difference is even greater:
• Sergio Moro: 64.5%
• Enio Verri: 11.3%
Against Cida Borghetti:
• Sergio Moro: 61.4%
• Cida Borghetti: 16.8%
Greca leads without Moro, but rejection is high
In the scenarios where Moro is not tested, Rafael Greca now leads, but with a strong dispersion of votes. The rate of whites, null and undecided exceeds 45% in some combinations, which indicates high voter volatility and possible rejection of traditional names.
In one of these scenarios:
• Nobody/white/null: 45%
• Guto Silva: 26.4%
• Enio Verri: 12.4%
