Lula promotes “tax accelerator with monetary brake” and disadvantages the bag, says green

Green Asset, manager led by Luis Stuhlberger, said Brazil today lives the expression of a model baptized as a “fiscal accelerator with monetary brake”. In a letter to the quota holders, the house pointed out that the combination of Lula government’s fiscal stimuli with the hardest posture of the Central Bank tends to strengthen the real and at the same time reduce the scholarship appeal.

According to the manager, two recent facts illustrate this scenario. One was the change of BC tone in his communication, with statements by the mayor, Gabriel Galipolo reinforcing that there is still a long way to contractionist policy. Another was unanimous approval in the House of Income Tax Exemption for income up to R $ 5,000 from 2026, year of elections.

“The Lulo-Petista economic model, which we commonly call the ‘monetary brake fiscal accelerator’ is perfectly illustrated by these two events,” the letter said. “This tends to favor the allocation in the real and disadvantage allocations in action, although specific opportunities continue to attract the interest and capital of the fund,” he wrote to Verde.

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Stuhlberger has been criticizing the Lula government’s propensity to spend next year to ensure his reelection. “What (the market) expects to keep this tune of increased spending and others such as (a new increase in) Bolsa Familia,” said the manager in an event promoted this week by Itaú BBA. “That’s what is missing in Playbook next year. ”

In the global scenario, the manager highlighted the ninth consecutive month of the rise of emerging markets, supported by the weaker dollar and the Federal Reserve Cut of Interest Cut.

Green reduced the exposure in real interest in the US, maintained a position bought in implicit inflation and continued betting on coins such as Euro, Renminbi, gold and real, as well as cryptocurrencies. The fund also increased “marginally” its allocation in Brazilian actions, and kept credit books High Yield local and global.

The multimarket fund ended September with a return of 1.99% and accumulates up 12% in the year, compared to 1.22% and 10.35% of the CDI, respectively.