IR, security and Trump: which themes should dominate the electoral debate in 2026?
High taxes, long working hours, income that shrinks before the end of the month and the perception of insecurity on the streets make up a scenario of social wear and tear that should gain weight in the 2026 presidential debate. According to political scientists, this malaise, experienced on a daily basis, should consolidate itself as one of the main areas of confrontation between government and opposition throughout the campaign, with each side trying to assign responsibilities and offer different solutions to problems that directly affect the base of the electorate.
Savings in your pocket, safety on the streets
In the pulpit of the debates for re-election in 2026, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) should focus on measures with a direct appeal, such as the exemption from income tax for those earning up to R$5,000, the fight against the 6×1 scale and overcoming the tariff imposed by Donald Trump. The strategy is to reinforce the idea of economic relief and protection for the most vulnerable.
In the opposite camp, candidacies linked to the right, especially that of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), tend to explore what they see as the most fragile point of the PT government: public security. The attempt will be to associate the feeling of insecurity with federal management, shifting the focus of the economic debate to public order.
For political scientist and UFRJ professor Jorge Chaloub, Donald Trump’s decisions and their impact on foreign policy must permeate the campaign. “The victory over tariffs will be a very central issue, because initially it was a great asset for the Bolsonaro family, but the retreat, together with the fall of the Magnitsky Law, is a great victory for Lula and the government”, he assesses.
The expert, however, highlights that the opposition should take advantage of the issue of international relations to use the government’s approach to China and Venezuela as a counterweight to balance the loss on this issue.
Chaloub also notes that Lula managed to reposition himself in the public debate and on the networks as a president once again identified with the poorest. This movement, according to him, tends to be a relevant electoral asset in a campaign year marked by disputes over income, work and security.
Public spending
The latest Ipsos-Ipec survey, released on Tuesday (16), shows that the vast majority of the population considers Lula’s stance on public security to be unsatisfactory. 47% of those interviewed classify the president’s performance on the topic as bad or terrible, 26% consider it average and 24% evaluate the performance as excellent or good.
In the field of controlling and cutting public spending, the scenario is even worse. 50% of those interviewed consider Lula’s fiscal policy to be bad or terrible, while 24% classify it as regular and only 19% rate it as positive.
“In the election, (aid for the poorest) is a rhetoric that is again very present in the PT’s speech and makes sense according to its trajectory. Evidently, the government is betting on exemption from IR, which is something that affects these voters with a range of 2 to 5 minimum wages, who did not evaluate it as highly as those who earn up to 2”, says Chaloub.
“In the opposition, we will again see the discourse that the government spends too much, which could bring Lula closer to accusations about corruption with an endorsement of public resources”, he states.
PL Antifaction
Also on Tuesday (16), the leader of the PT in the Chamber, deputy Lindbergh Farias (RJ), stated that the base should resume discussions on the Anti-Faction Bill in February. The text proposes changes in the classification of crimes, toughens penalties and legal impediments for criminals, as well as reconfigures the sharing of power between the state police and the Federal Police.
The project faces a difficult process and, now in the Senate, awaits the report of Alessandro Vieira (MDB-SE), who promises to bring breathing space to the government with greater acceptance of the changes proposed by the allied base.
From the perspective of the elections, the approval of the project with the proposed changes will bring greater visibility to the Federal Police’s actions in combating organized crime and will give the impression to voters that the government is acting at the root of the problem that affects several Brazilian cities.
“Public security is more usually mobilized in right-wing campaigns. Recent police operations and the reactions of governors, such as Cláudio Castro and Tarcísio de Freitas, show that this is a topic that will articulate the debate”, reflects Chaloub. “They must try to mobilize unease, popular dissatisfaction around the absence or weak attitudes.”
“But there was a slip-up by the opposition in the Antifaction PL, because it allowed a rapprochement between the defenders of the Federal Police as a corporation and the government”, he asks. For the political scientist, the small pro-government gap on the issue, however, should yield little fruit.
