With Flávio Bolsonaro in the running for Planalto, Tarcísio should bet on re-election in SP

With the consolidation of the presidential project of former president Jair Bolsonaro’s family in the pre-candidacy of senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), decided to intensify the focus on state agendas and reduce exposure to themes of national scope.

The strategy includes confronting Enel Distribuição São Paulo and a retreat from the leading role in debates such as the dosimetry bill, approved by Congress and awaiting presidential sanction.

According to interlocutors linked to Tarcísio heard by the Estadão/BroadcastGrupo Estado’s real-time news system, the movement seeks to eliminate any reading of competition with Flávio and avoid attacks from the retired captain’s children.

The so-called “friendly fire”, in fact, has always been among Tarcísio’s main factors of caution in relation to a possible dispute for the Planalto. The head of the São Paulo Executive never had the unanimous support of the Bolsonaro clan, especially former federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro.

The discomfort was reinforced in a recent episode involving Eduardo and pastor Silas Malafaia. After the religious leader stated that he preferred Tarcísio as the right-wing candidate for President, with former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) as vice-president, the former parliamentarian reacted on social media.

On platform Eduardo has even said that Tarcísio “is not right-wing”.

The feud between the two predates the heat of the 2026 presidential debate, but intensified after Eduardo’s actions in the United States in defense of American President Donald Trump’s sanctions against Brazil.

At the time, Tarcísio even stated to those around him that the former deputy had become “Lula’s biggest electoral campaigner” and that he would be “scoring an own goal” on a recurring basis.

Unlike the relationship with Bolsonaro’s so-called “03” son, the bond with Flávio, “01”, is described by allies as more cordial, although marked by natural consideration.

In a nod to the head of the São Paulo Executive, the senator has adopted a speech of damage containment and defense of the maintenance of bridges with Tarcísio. The parliamentarian has stated that Tarcísio is a “fundamental” piece for the right-wing national strategy in 2026, highlighting the centrality of the State – the largest electoral college and largest GDP in the country – for the success of the presidential project.

Although he recognizes differences, Flávio has defended that differences be temporarily set aside in the name of a common objective, arguing that it is unreasonable to treat Tarcísio as an internal adversary. The reading of allies is that the senator seeks to preserve the governor’s strength at the local level, even without full alignment, as a way of keeping open a strategic platform for the national dispute.

In the assessment of allies, this retreat movement is also anchored in electoral data that reinforce the centrality of Bolsonarism in the right-wing camp. The latest Quaest survey on the topic shows Flávio ahead of other presidential candidates on the conservative spectrum in the first round of 2026, although behind Lula. The PT member leads with 41%, Flávio maintains 23% and Tarcísio appears distant, with 10%.

The internal diagnosis is that electoral capital remains concentrated in Bolsonarism, which helps explain the governor’s decision to avoid clashes and reduce national protagonism. Flávio, in turn, has sought to present himself as the heir of this electorate, by defending a liberal agenda centered on reducing taxes and focusing on public security, the current agenda. There is an effort to present himself as a “moderate Bolsonaro”, as he says, to calm the financial market.

Tarcísio even publicly listed a series of arguments to rule out the possibility of a presidential candidacy. Although he recognizes that it is natural for a governor of São Paulo to be mentioned as a presidential candidate, given the state’s electoral weight, he has relativized this protagonism by remembering that Brazilian political history offers few examples of success in this trajectory. The head of the São Paulo Executive has also stated that he is comfortable with this diagnosis and satisfied with the role he currently holds, reinforcing the speech of remaining in the State.

Even keeping the confrontational speech against the PT as a backdrop, Tarcísio plans to focus his agenda on local issues, with emphasis on the revitalization of the center of the capital of São Paulo. The governor has included in this package the reurbanization of Favela do Moinho – a topic of direct friction with the Lula government -, the implementation of the new Administrative Center and the defense of the end of Cracolândia under his management, in addition to the defense of the privatization of the Basic Sanitation Company (Sabesp) and the clash with Enel.

In a management review in December, Tarcísio once again stated that the removal of families from the Moinho is part of a necessary urbanization effort, classifying resistance to the project as unjustified and arguing that residents live without dignity, under the control of organized crime. In sanitation, he countered criticisms about tariff increases, attributing the adjustment to inflationary replacement and highlighting the increase in the social tariff, financed, according to him, without prejudice to the private partner.

In the case of Enel, he toughened his tone when defending the withdrawal of the concessionaire from the State, accusing the company of operational incapacity and of betting on an automatic renewal of the contract, which he classified as a “mockery” with São Paulo. He attributed part of the problems to the Ministry of Mines and Energy, and even referred to the federal government’s monitoring of the concession as “failed”.