Action in the STF puts Eduardo Bolsonaro at risk of ineligibility

The formalization of the criminal action against Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL) in the Federal Supreme Court adds a relevant variable to the political tableau of 2026. Defended by coercion during the judicial process, the former deputy now passes to the procedural investigation phase, a stage that can culminate in conviction or acquittal, with direct effects on his eligibility.

The complaint, presented by the Attorney General’s Office and accepted by the First Panel of the STF in November last year, claims that Eduardo and blogger Paulo Figueiredo had acted to pressure Court ministers in cases involving former president Jair Bolsonaro. The formal opening of the action marks the beginning of the evidence and testimony collection phase.

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Electoral risk

If convicted, Eduardo Bolsonaro could become ineligible for eight years, according to the rules of the Clean Record Law.

Opportunity with security!

For PL, the party to which Eduardo is affiliated, the outcome of the case directly influences the design of the electoral strategy. The former deputy’s name is circulating both as a possible candidate for the Senate and as an alternative in majority disputes, depending on the configuration of the Bolsonarist camp.

Effect on the Bolsonarist camp

The action also puts pressure on the internal reorganization of the political group linked to former president Jair Bolsonaro. With the former president already convicted by the STF for an attempted coup d’état, Eduardo’s eventual ineligibility would reduce the family’s range of options for the presidential race or for strategic positions in Congress.

Behind the scenes, party leaders assess that legal uncertainty could make early alliances and negotiations difficult, especially in states where the presence of the Bolsonaro family is still a relevant electoral asset.

Timing and predictability

The main unknown at this moment is the calendar. If the trial takes place before the party definitions period in 2026, the impact tends to be more immediate. If the process continues, the scenario may remain unclear until closer to the election, increasing the degree of political uncertainty.