Lula’s weariness grows and negative evaluation rises by 40%, points out Datafolha

The negative perception about the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) grew and reached 40%, according to a Datafolha survey published this Saturday (7) by Folha de S.Paulo. The result comes seven months before the first round of the presidential elections.

32% of those interviewed consider Lula’s management to be excellent or good, while 26% classify it as regular. Another 1% were unable to evaluate.

In relation to the previous survey, carried out in December 2025, the bad or terrible rate fluctuated from 37% to 40%, a movement that occurs within the margin of error of two percentage points. The positive assessment remained at 32%, and the group that sees the government as regular dropped from 30% to 26%, indicating a slight migration of voters to the most critical range.

Datafolha interviewed 2,004 Brazilians aged 16 or over between the 3rd and 5th of this month, in different regions of the country. The maximum margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence level.

The 40% negative assessment level remains even after a series of Planalto initiatives in the economic area, including the expansion of the Income Tax exemption range for those who receive up to R$5,000, a central promise of the 2022 presidential campaign that came into effect this year.

The government’s strategy has been to highlight economic indicators considered favorable and try to associate them directly with voters’ daily lives. Even so, as a sequence of research cited by the Folha de S.PauloLula’s allies hoped that the package of measures would translate into a more consistent improvement in popularity, which has not been confirmed so far.

On the other hand, the result suggests that recent episodes of political wear and tear have not yet produced sudden changes in the government’s image — such as the Acadêmicos de Niterói parade in honor of the president and the progress of investigations related to the Banco Master case.

Read more: Datafolha: with Lula and Flávio in the 2nd round, 10% would vote blank/null and 1% don’t know

When the question turns to Lula’s personal performance as president, the picture also shows a divided country. According to Datafolha, 49% disapprove of the PT member’s work, while 47% approve of his performance. Another 4% were unable to answer. In December, disapproval was 48% and approval was 49%; 3% did not have an opinion at the time.

As the variations occurred within the margin of error, the institute interprets that the scenario captured at the end of last year was maintained, without a statistically relevant change in the population’s perception of the government and the president.

The numbers reinforce the strong correlation between approval and the vote given in the second round of the 2022 presidential election. Among those who declared having voted for Lula, 86% approve of his management, compared to 11% who disapprove. In the group of voters for Jair Bolsonaro (PL), the movement is the opposite: 90% disapprove of the PT member’s work, and only 9% say they approve of him.

Men disapprove of Lula’s government more than women: 54% of them compared to 45% of women. The breakdown by education level also shows marked differences. Among those who have completed high school, 54% disapprove and 42% approve. In the group with education up to elementary school, the assessment is more favorable to the president: 57% approve and 38% disapprove. Among those with higher education, 52% disapprove of Lula’s work, and 44% approve.

The segment in which the distance between approval and disapproval is most pronounced is that of evangelicals. According to the survey, 66% of respondents who declare themselves evangelicals say they disapprove of the president, while 30% approve of his actions, a negative balance of 36 percentage points.

The data collected after three years and two months in office places Lula among the presidents with the highest negative evaluation at this stage of government, within the historical series compared by Datafolha. With a 40% rating of bad or terrible, the PT member is only behind José Sarney and Jair Bolsonaro, who recorded a 65% and 46% negative rating, respectively, in an equivalent period.

In Lula’s first term, in 2006, the bad or terrible rate was 23%. At the end of the second term, in 2010, the rejection level had dropped to 4%, one of the best results in the series.

On the positive evaluation side, the scenario is also not the most favorable for the current president. Today, 32% rate the government as excellent or good. In the institute’s historical series, the worst levels were for Sarney, with 10% in 1988, and Bolsonaro, with 25% in 2022, already in the final stretch of his term.

In Lula’s first two governments, the situation was different. In 2006 and 2010, after three years and two months of management, the PT member had 38% and 76% excellent and good, respectively – the latter considered the peak of presidential approval measured by Datafolha since redemocratization.