Real Time Big Data: Fagundes leads in MT and increases advantage in 2nd round scenarios
Senator Wellington Fagundes (PL) appears ahead in the race for government of Mato Grosso, according to a survey by the Real Time Big Data institute released this Tuesday (24). The data indicates a consistent advantage in both the first round and second round simulations.
In the main scenario tested, Fagundes registers 37% of voting intentions. Vice-governor Otaviano Pivetta (Republicans) has 22%, in a technical tie with senator Jayme Campos (Union). Doctor Natasha Slhessarenko (PSD) appears with 9%. Blank and invalid votes reach 8%, while 4% of those interviewed did not know or did not respond.
In a second simulation, the senator increases his advantage and reaches 43%. Pivetta appears with 25%, and Natasha reaches 12%. In this scenario, the number of undecided voters and voters who intend to vote blank or invalid also grows, totaling 20% of the total.
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Second shift shows slack
In second round scenarios, Fagundes maintains a more robust performance. Against Pivetta, the senator reaches 47%, while his opponent records 29%. In a possible dispute with Jayme Campos, the advantage increases to 50% to 26%.
In the confrontation with Natasha Slhessarenko, Fagundes reaches 55%, while her opponent has 20%. The rates of undecided voters and blank or null votes remain above 20% in all scenarios.
Without the presence of Fagundes, the scenario between the other names indicates greater balance. Pivetta and Jayme Campos appear in a technical tie, with 33% and 31%, respectively. In this context, the number of voters without a defined position grows.
The Real Time Big Data survey interviewed 1,600 voters between March 21st and 23rd, through face-to-face interviews. The margin of error is two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number MT-06241/2026.
