AtlasIntel: Tarcísio leads the dispute for SP and beats all tested opponents

Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) leads the dispute in the first round with 49.1% of voting intentions in the state of São Paulo and maintains a preference for re-election. The data is contained in the new AtlasIntel survey, released this Monday (30).

According to the survey, the governor appears six percentage points ahead of Fernando Haddad (PT), President Lula’s possible nomination for the dispute, who totals 42.6% of the votes.

In third place in the tested scenario, federal deputy Kim Kataguiri (Mission) obtains 5%, and the former mayor of Santo André, Paulo Serra (PSDB) reaches only 1.2%.

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Check it out:

Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) — 49.1%
Fernando Haddad (PT) — 42.6%
Kim Kataguiri (Mission) — 5%
Paulo Serra (PSDB) — 1.2%
Blank/null vote — 1.5%
I don’t know — 0.6%

The governor of São Paulo also leads scenarios without the presence of the former Minister of Finance. In a possible dispute against Márcio França (PSB), Tarcísio maintains the advantage with 49.4% of the votes compared to 32.2%.

Check it out:

Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) — 49.4%
Márcio França (PSB) — 32.2%
Kim Kataguiri (Mission) — 5.3%
Paulo Serra (PSDB) — 2.1%
Blank/null vote — 9%
I don’t know — 2%

The advantage is smaller in a scenario against the vice-president, Geraldo Alckmin (PSB). In the dispute, Tarcísio maintains the lead with 48.4%, against 41.4% for the vice-president and minister.

Check it out:

Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) — 48.4%
Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) — 41.4%
Kim Kataguiri (Mission) — 5.3%
Paulo Serra (PSDB) — 1.5%
Blank/null vote — 2.2%
I don’t know — 1.2%

In a dispute without governor Tarcísio de Freitas, Haddad takes the lead in a similar position. The PT member emerges with 48.8% of the votes, followed by the former Minister of Budget Planning, Simone Tebet (MDB), who reaches 41.8%.

Check it out:

Fernando Haddad (PT) — 48.8%
Simone Tebet (MDB) — 41.8%
Kim Kataguiri (Mission) — 5%
Paulo Serra (PSDB) — 1.5%
Blank/null vote — 2.5%
I don’t know — 0.5%

2nd round

Tarcísio de Freitas is also leading the dispute in the second round for the government of São Paulo and would beat all his opponents with at least an eight percentage point advantage.

In a possible dispute against the former Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), the current governor wins re-election with 53.5% compared to 43.2%, a difference of ten percentage points.

The victory scenario is slightly less favorable in a dispute against vice-president Geraldo Alckmin (PSB). In the survey, Tarcísio wins with 52.6% compared to Alckmin’s 44%, an advantage of 8.6 percentage points.

The least favorable dispute for the governor would be in a possible second round against the Minister of Budget Planning, Simone Tebet (MDB). In this scenario, Tarcísio wins reelection with 52.9% compared to 44.4% for the minister.

Despite technically being the most competitive candidate in a dispute against the governor of São Paulo, Simone Tebet has already confirmed that she will leave the Ministry to contest the Senate elections in the state of São Paulo.

The least viable candidate to face Tarcísio in a second round is Márcio França, (PSB), who loses the dispute with 36.2% compared to the governor’s 54.5%. In this scenario, Whites, Nulls and those who did not know how to respond total 9.3%.

The AtlasIntel survey interviewed 2,254 people between March 24th and 27th. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number SP-00899/2026.