AtlasIntel: Cleitinho leads in MG with 32.7%, but scenario changes with support from Lula

The dispute for the government of Minas Gerais begins with the leadership of senator Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicans), according to a survey by AtlasIntel released this Wednesday (1st). In the spontaneous first round scenario, he appears with 32.7% of voting intentions, ahead of Rodrigo Pacheco, who registers 28.6%.

The table also includes Alexandre Kalil (11.7%), Carlos Viana (7.5%) and Mateus Simões (6.2%). The other candidates appear with less than 5%, while white, null and undecided candidates total around 5.6%.

When the survey simulates explicit political support, the scenario changes. With the support of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Pacheco rises to 37.9% and takes the lead, while Cleitinho remains with 34.2%. Mateus Simões, associated with the camp of former president Jair Bolsonaro and governor Romeu Zema, appears with 11.5%.

Second-round scenarios reinforce the competitiveness of the dispute. In a possible direct confrontation, Cleitinho has 47% against Pacheco’s 42%. In another simulation, Pacheco beats Mateus Simões by 43% to 31%. Cleitinho also appears ahead of Kalil, with 51% against 36%.

The data indicates that the race in Minas tends to be defined by alliances and transfers of support. While Cleitinho takes the lead in a more open scenario, Pacheco gains traction when linked to the federal government, which highlights the weight of political godfathers in the state.

The survey interviewed 2,195 voters between March 25th and 30th, with a margin of error of two percentage points and a confidence level of 95%. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under numbers BR-05686/2026 and MG-01664/2026.