Risk Map: Flávio’s crisis expands public dispute on the right by 2026

The wear caused by the Banco Master case began to produce a parallel effect within the right with the increase in the movement of presidential candidates who until now had avoided direct confrontation with senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ).

Although polarization continues to keep Bolsonarism competitive, analysts estimate that the crisis has opened space for governors and leaders from the conservative camp to recalculate strategies for 2026, especially given the possibility of weakening the candidacy supported by former president Jair Bolsonaro.

“I would venture to say that we are experiencing a crisis in Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign,” said political analyst Leopoldo Vieira, from IdealPolitik, during his participation in Mapa de Risco, the political program of the InfoMoneythis Friday (15).

The assessment gained strength after the release of audios involving Flávio and former banker Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, an episode that placed the issue of corruption back at the center of the electoral dispute.

Zema moves away from Bolsonarism

Among the names that began to move more clearly is the governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo). According to analysts, the Minas Gerais native has been adopting a more independent stance in relation to the Bolsonarist core and is already working to preserve his own space within the right.

“At the moment, Zema’s rapprochement with Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy is quite distant,” said XP political analyst, Bárbara Baião.

The relationship between the groups had already been strained since discussions about state alliances and the division of platforms. Now, the environment has become even more sensitive.

Bárbara recalled that part of Bolsonaroism began to interpret Zema’s recent movements as attempts to build an alternative path to the leadership of the Bolsonaro family.

“Politics forgives betrayal, but not the traitor”, said the analyst when describing the feeling of Bolsonaro sectors about leaders trying to gain electoral autonomy.

Right avoids open break

Despite the tension, conservative leaders still avoid attacking Flávio Bolsonaro head-on. The predominant assessment is that an explicit break could fragment the right-wing electorate and directly benefit Lula.

Therefore, the movement observed so far is more one of gradual distancing than open confrontation. According to Leopoldo Vieira, the logic of polarization still imposes clear limits on alternative candidacies.

“But polarization will prevail,” he stated.

In practice, this means that even leaders interested in occupying space on the right know that there will hardly be electoral viability without some level of rapprochement with the Bolsonarista electorate.

Political spoils begin to be disputed

Even so, the crisis involving Flávio accelerated a discussion that until then had been taking place more silently: who would inherit the political capital of the right if the senator’s candidacy lost strength throughout the campaign.

The debate gained intensity because the Banco Master episode hit precisely one of the most sensitive pillars of Bolsonarism, the anti-corruption discourse.

Furthermore, the wear and tear occurs at a time when polls continue to point to a tight dispute between Lula and Flávio, which increases the weight of small electoral shifts.

For analysts, the right still remains strongly concentrated around the Bolsonaro family, but the Master case showed that the conservative camp has already begun to prepare for alternative scenarios, even if it still avoids admitting this publicly.

The Risk Map, the policy program of the InfoMoneyairs every Friday, starting at 5am, on YouTube and your favorite podcast player.