Datafolha indicates Flávio’s wear and tear without clear migration to other names on the right
The new Datafolha survey released this Friday (22) showed the first relevant electoral impact of the crisis involving senator Flávio Bolsonaro and former banker Daniel Vorcaro. The survey points to an increase in the advantage of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the first and second rounds of the 2026 presidential race.
In the main scenario of the first round, Lula appears with 40% of voting intentions, against 31% for Flávio. In the previous round, released a week ago, the score was 38% to 35%, within a margin of error of two percentage points.
The change also affected the second round simulation. The 45% tie recorded previously gave way to a four-point advantage for the PT member: 47% against 43%.
The research was carried out between Wednesday (20) and Thursday (21), with wide repercussions from the conversations between Flávio and Daniel Vorcaro, former controller of Banco Master.
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Flávio remains isolated on the right
Despite the retreat, the survey still shows Flávio as the main name of the opposition to the Lula government. In the spontaneous survey, when the interviewee responded without access to the list of candidates, the senator maintained 17% of voting intentions. Lula appears with 28%.
Governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema remain far from leadership. In the first round, Caiado scored 4% and Zema scored 3%.
In the second round, Lula appears with 48% against Caiado’s 39%. Against Zema, the score was also 48% to 39%. The data indicates that, so far, Flávio’s wear and tear has not produced significant growth in other names on the right.
Michelle maintains close performance
Datafolha also tested former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro as a PL alternative. In a possible second round against Lula, Michelle appears with 43%, a performance similar to that of the senator. In the first round, she recorded 22%, while Lula had 41%.
Today, the former first lady’s candidacy is considered unlikely by those around Bolsonar. The trend within the PL continues to be her contest for the Senate in the Federal District.
Datafolha interviewed 2,004 people in 139 municipalities. The margin of error is two percentage points. The research is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under code BR-07489/2026.
