Undecided people see Flávio’s wear and tear with “Dark Horse” and electoral bias in Lula’s actions

Amid the crisis caused by the discovery of the relationship between senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), pre-candidate for President, and Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, undecided voters have assessed the parliamentarian’s attempts at justification as unconvincing. Decisive for the outcome of this year’s elections, the group also shows some dissatisfaction with measures announced by the Lula government, such as Desenrola 2.0, described as electoral.

Target of vote-by-vote disputes between left and right, representatives of the segment — undecided and residents of strategic electoral colleges — have been monitored by GLOBO when a relevant event occurs in politics. Since July last year, they have already taken a stance on the tariffs imposed on Brazil by the United States and the government’s response to the crisis, in addition to the Blindagem PEC, the amnesty for those convicted of the 8th of January and the choice of a successor to former president Jair Bolsonaro, arrested after conviction for an attempted coup d’état.

Last month, the group also gave its opinion on the effects of the Master scandal on politicians and the impact of the Income Tax exemption for those earning up to R$5,000. Over the last ten months, they have signaled their rejection of names linked to the Bolsonaro family, but they are also uncomfortable with government gestures that seek to regain President Lula’s popularity.

Faulty justifications

In this round, the eight voters followed by the report report their perception of Flávio Bolsonaro’s request for money from Vorcaro to make a film about his father. Since the release of the audios on the Intercept Brasil website, the senator has given different versions of his approach to the banker, whom he visited while under house arrest before being definitively arrested.

From Salvador, journalist Vinícius Portugal is suspicious of the fate of the R$61 million that was transferred to the film “Dark horse”:

— (His answer) is not convincing until it is proven that this money, in fact, went to the film’s budget. Even so, Flávio’s image is already cracked, because it was proven that he already knew about the entire operation against Vorcaro and, even so, he continued to treat him as a great friend.

The relationship between the two, previously unknown, also caused discomfort for psychologist Laís Barreiros, another resident of the capital of Bahia. She claims to be against “any type of proximity between public figures and private interests when there are suspicions and little transparency involved”.

Administrator Fabiana Gomes, from Belo Horizonte, criticizes the fact that Flávio presented different justifications, including that it was a private money grab.

— He fulfilled the role of taking public money, although they say it is private, to resolve personal issues such as his brother’s stay in the USA — assesses Laís, in reference to the Federal Police (PF) investigation into the sending of resources to a fund administered by a lawyer linked to Eduardo Bolsonaro and also about the Vorcaro scheme that involved fraud with retirees’ money.

The reaction of presidential candidate Romeu Zema (Novo), former governor of Minas Gerais who published a video criticizing Flávio shortly after the episode, also did not go unnoticed. Lorena Mendes, from the municipality of Manhuaçu, from Minas Gerais, classified the reaction of those who were considered for the senator’s vice-president as “an attempt to move away from Bolsonarism to preserve their own image”. Online sales assistant Vinícius Ribeiro, from São Paulo, saw Zema’s “opportunism” to “gain visibility and be a voting alternative”.

On the other hand, Rio clerk Célio Gomes classifies the former Minas Gerais governor’s stance as “correct” and states that it can “serve as an argument in debates”. Taxi driver Walter Dias echoes this, but believes that the Minas Gerais native “should not be exposed in this way at this moment”. Regarding the relationship between Flávio and Vorcaro, Dias sees an “overpriced investment” in the film about Bolsonaro.

Volatile perception

The group’s critical vision also reaches the PT government, which recently relaunched Desenrola, a debt renegotiation program. From Niterói (RJ), lawyer Benedicto Patrão believes that the measure is political capital for Lula with a view to the election. The opinion is shared by Vinícius Portugal:

— It’s a shame that these programs only appear during election years.

Fabiana, from Minas Gerais, says that she does not benefit from the program, but that it should be the beginning of a more lasting initiative:

— The middle class needs something that will help them overcome debt and place them as citizens capable of investing and building possibilities beyond the ordinary.

Vinícius Ribeiro, from São Paulo, is one of those benefiting from Desenrola, used to pay off a debt by paying installments that “are easy on the pocket”. For Rio clerk Célio, one of the program’s strengths is to link its use to the prohibition of betting games: anyone who uses it cannot invest money in bets.

Lula’s pre-campaign teams believe that the program helped him improve his government evaluation. But this must be viewed with caution, especially among independent voters. Quaest research shows that the group has immense volatility regarding the perception of federal management. The last time they approved of the government more than they disapproved was in December 2024; Since then, the survey curve has fluctuated with each political moment.

In May last year, for example, when Lula was still feeling the effects of the turmoil that began in January — in the wake of food inflation and what became known as the Pix crisis —, only 33% of independents endorsed his management, compared to 61% who disapproved of it. Five months later, in the October survey, the difference of 28 points fell to just two, with a technical tie between those who approve and disapprove.

The PT member was experiencing a moment of regaining his popularity with a speech of sovereignty in reaction to the tariffs. In the last Quaest, carried out after Lula’s visit to the White House, but before the Flávio-Vorcaro case, the negative balance decreased again, with 15 points between disapproval and approval.

Fabiana Gomes, administrator

“I think Desenrola is a start, but the middle class needs something that will help them overcome debt”

Vinícius Portugal, journalist

“Desenrola 2.0 is interesting, but it’s a shame that these programs only appear during election years”

Vinicius Ribeiro, attendant

“One of the strengths of the new Desenrola is to link its use to the prohibition of betting games”

Lorena Mendes, student

“Flávio’s image is compromised, and this case shows that he is not trustworthy”

Célio Gomes, clerk

“Flávio Bolsonaro’s justifications are a mockery of the population”

Laís Barreiros, psychologist

“I don’t find Flávio’s explanation convincing, especially considering the context”