The US bombs Iranian positions in Qeshm, on the eve of 3-N and crude oil falls from $100

IN 30 SECONDS

• What has happened? The US Army launched airstrikes against the Iranian island of Qeshm on the night of Monday, November 2, the eve of the legislative elections. It is the first military action in two months and Washington presents it as a defensive and limited operation.
• Who is behind? The order starts from president of the United States, donald trumpwith the State Department of Marco Rubio on the diplomatic flank.
• What impact does it have? Crude oil has broken below $100 a barrel due to expectations in agreement with Tehran, a decline that alleviates Spain’s energy bill just before winter.

The US attacks on Iran They have returned to the island of Qeshm the eve of the legislative elections. Crude oil, meanwhile, has fallen below $100.

What is known about the attacks on the island of Qeshm

The operation was concentrated last night on the island of Qeshm, at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, where Tehran It has part of its military infrastructure deployed. The specific targets, according to the AP agency and the story of the Washington Examinerwere Iranian soldiers ‘who were using surface-to-air missiles against US assets’. Several reports agree that the attacks were limited and that they do not represent a return to open war.

What draws attention in Washington is the date. Just a month ago, donald trump spoke of ‘productive talks’ with the Islamic Republic. This weekend he left the door open to a second round after the polls: ‘We still have to deal with one or two facilities,’ he said, mentioning Pickaxe Mountain, the enclave where, according to US and Israeli officials, Iran has moved advanced centrifuges and enriched uranium. He finished it off with a phrase very much his own: ‘We could go after her, but it’s not a big deal.’

Nothing is coincidental on an election eve.

From the Strait of Hormuz to the Spanish gas station

Oil is the variable that really moves American politics this week. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime highway through which around a fifth of the oil consumed in the world leaves, skyrocketed gasoline prices during the spring and summer, and continues to be one of the big concerns of the average voter. And yet, this Monday crude oil fell below $100 a barrel, according to the data collected The Daily Callerand Trump has celebrated it on Truth Social as a ‘record’ decline.

Washington is fighting two battles at the same time: that of Qeshm, which is tactical, and that of the price of gasoline, which is what decides seats tonight.

For Spain, this second front weighs more than any statement from the Pentagon. The Spanish economy imports practically all the oil it consumes and a good part of its gas arrives by sea. A sustained drop in crude oil ends up affecting the CPI, the cost of kerosene and the electricity billand conditions the decision made by the European Central Bank with the rates, which is what any mortgage holder looks at.

With the barrel below 100 dollars, the numbers fit better in Repsol and in Cepsathe two largest refineries in the country, and the reduction in prices reaches the gas stations with the usual delay: a few weeks, no more, no less. On the other side of the counter, the sectors that burn the most fuel – freight transport, deep-sea fishing, airlines – are the first to notice the relief.

Relief, yes, is fragile. All it takes is for the strait to close again or for a speedboat to get too close to a destroyer for the price to jump again. The oil truce depends as much on diplomacy as it does on the radar screen.

Washington Logic

These days two clocks coexist in the capital. The first is the electoral one: the Republican Party Control of Congress is at stake tonight and the war with Iran, which began in February, has become the heaviest burden of the campaign; The White House has built its final speech around the drop in gasoline. The second is the military: the president of the United States It needs to exhibit firmness without opening a new front, and hence the choice of the objective – an anti-aircraft battery, not a city – and of the language: ‘defensive’, ‘limited’, ‘it is not a war’.

The coalition that supports that equation is broader than it seems. The hawks who have been calling for ending the nuclear program for months, the grassroots voter who does not want their children in another Middle East and the middle class voter who only looks at the price of the pump coexist.

Washington does not ask permission.

There is precedent, and it is very American. In 1972, Richard Nixon He made it announced in the middle of the campaign that peace in Vietnam was near. In 1980, the Carter Doctrine made free passage through the Gulf a vital US interest and gave birth to the force that today watches over Hormuz. In 2002, Republicans gained seats in legislative elections marked by the road to Iraq. The unwritten rule is that the electoral calendar and the military calendar are never completely separate.

For Spain, the reading is direct: the same crude oil that decides seats in Ohio decides the January slope in Madrid. If the agreement with Tehran materializes, the energy bill reaches winter with a margin; If the Pickaxe mountain becomes the next target, the barrel will recover triple figures and tensions will return in the CPI, in the cost of debt and in tourism, the sector that first notices any global cooling.

The immediate screening has two appointments. The first, tonight’s scrutiny: if the Republican Party retains Congress, Trump will have room to measure the attacks and negotiate without haste, as he himself has hinted; If he loses it, the war becomes a bargaining chip between the White House and a hostile Capitol. The second, the decision on Pickaxe, which the president himself has placed after the polls. There we will know if crude oil below $100 was an expectation or a mirage.

Case File

• The case: The US bombs the Iranian island of Qeshm on the night of November 2, the eve of the legislative elections, in a limited operation against anti-aircraft batteries and with the price of crude oil as a backdrop.
• Key data: First military action in two months; targets, surface-to-air missiles; crude oil below $100 a barrel; war started in February; legislative elections this November 3.
• For Spain: Lower oil prices ease CPI and kerosene, but the bill depends on the Strait of Hormuz remaining open and Trump not making Pickaxe the next target.