Analysis: Exemption to go to those who earn up to R $ 5,000 passes in Congress easily

The XP political analysis podcast, the Political frequencypresented by Paulo Gama and with the participation of Bianca Lima and João Paulo Machado, experts from XP, discussed the latest events in Brasilia.

According to Gama, there was advances in the political articulation, something long awaited by the National Congress, which allowed the voting of the 2025 budget calendar. However, parliamentary amendments continue to generate friction between the legislative and judiciary.

The Federal Government intends to send this week to Congress the proposal for income tax reform, promised in the campaign of 2022. The measure provides for exemption from the tax for those who earn up to R $ 5,000, something that, according to analyst João Paulo Machado, must be easily approved, as it directly reaches the middle class and no parliamentary should oppose such a popular measure in the election year.

Listen to the “Political Frequency” podcast here

Compensation

However, the big challenge will be to find a form of tax compensation, as the measure can result in a loss of collection of nearly $ 35 billion. “The government wants an accelerated processing, without undergoing thematic committees, to ensure rapid approval,” he says.

Analyst Bianca Lima, in turn, stressed that the main concern of the financial market at this time is the 2025 budget vote, which should drag itself throughout the year. The National Congress Budget Commission (CMO) announced, on Saturday (15), a new postponement in the voting of the budget piece, now scheduled for April 4. Thus, the country will continue without a budget approved by Congress for at least four months, which limits government expenses to those considered essential or mandatory.

The postponement was due to pending issues in the opinion of the rapporteur, Senator Angelo Coronel (PSD-BA), and government difficulties in presenting spending cuts to compensate for the expected expenses. Last week, the Planalto sent a letter with the forecast of cutting $ 7.6 billion from Bolsa Familia, reinforcing the “comb” speech to avoid fraud, while denied any cut in the program.

Sick

Other pending issues include the Step Foot Program, which faces questions from the Federal Court of Audit (TCU). The government projected expenses of $ 1 billion with encouraging school completion, but it is estimated that the cost can reach $ 12 billion. To circumvent the problem, the Planalto must send a project to a separate supplementary credit. Vale-Gás also faces an impasse, expected to spend $ 600 million, but projections from the Ministry of Planning pointing to $ 3 billion.

Package

In addition to budgetary issues, Congress concluded on the 20th the vote on the spending containment package proposed by the Lula government. Two bills were approved and a proposal for amendment to the Constitution, but the measures lost part of its strength due to concessions made to ensure approval.

Among the concessions are the armor of compulsory amendments against blockages and the loosening of the rules against supersalaries. Nevertheless, the Ministry of Finance estimates that Congress -approved changes remove just over $ 2 billion from the economy initially scheduled for 2025 and 2026, which was a total of $ 72 billion. Experts, however, project losses that can range from $ 8 billion to $ 20 billion.