Conflict Israel and Iran must climb, but World War 3 is ‘unlikely’

Global risks have increased, but the chances of world war are still quite remote. What we see is a regional escalation that can trigger conflicts in critical areas, such as Gulf and Middle East, and even naval interference or international terrorist attacks. There is already a talk of regional expansion, but none of the great powers (China, Russia, NATO) has declared direct confrontation intentions. FERNANDO BRANCOI, UFRJ International and Geopolitics Professor

You still can’t know how much this climb will lead to a generalization of the conflict. In the short term, it generates great regional instability. In the medium term, it is possible that there is the involvement of other countries, but it is still necessary to understand how much China, Russia, Turkey, and European countries will get involved in the conflict and to what degree it will happen to have a better perception if this climb will generate a global expansion of the conflict. Denilde Holzhacker, Political Scientist and Professor of International Relations at ESPM

I think we will hardly have a great conventional war between these two countries, because the distance between the two is over a thousand kilometers. (…) But there will be many tensions, many localized, regional conflicts and many transformations of the international order, as we have known for decades, that we can expect. And this transformation may involve international military conflicts, for sure. Kai Enno Lehmann, professor at IRI (USP Institute of International Relations

Political pressure under Iran so that there are answers to the time to Israeli attacks is ‘huge’, Professor says. According to Kai Enno Lehmann, Iri-USP professor, the Iranian Armed Forces are among the most powerful of the Middle East, behind only those of Israel, and Iran “is under enormous political and domestic pressure of retaliation.” He ponders, however, that it is not yet known to what extent the Iranian government has the ability to “respond with the same force” and threaten Israeli internal security.

After Israel’s attack yesterday, Iran’s “overwhelming” answer began, says Iranian state television. According to IRNA, around 3:30 pm today, the “decisive response to the brutal attack of the Zionist regime began with the shooting of hundreds of ballistic missiles against the occupied territories.” Dozens were injured, a spokesman said to the local press of the Israeli rescue service.

Retaliation occurred after Israel killing high -ranking military leaders in Iran. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Chief General Hossein Salami and Armed Forces Chief General Mohammad Bagheri were killed in Israeli bombing on Iranian territory last night (Brasilia time; Friday dawn, local time). The FDI (Israel’s Defense Forces) stated that the operation, appointed “lion on the rise”, was against “dozen military targets” and nuclear facilities related to the nuclear program of Iran.