Eurasia: election reinforces clientelism and consolidates parties, but says little about 2026
The 2024 municipal elections in Brazil, which ended last Sunday (27), with the second round dispute in 51 cities in the country – of which 15 capitals –, portrayed the strength of political clientelism and the consolidation of a party framework that tends to be increasingly restricted in the coming years.
This is the assessment of Eurasia, one of the main risk consultancies in the world, and is in a company report released this Monday (28), the day after the polls close.
According to the report, “centrist and right-wing parties focused on clientelism politics performed better in municipal elections, winning a substantial number of city halls, seats in Municipal Chambers and total votes.”
On the other hand, Eurasia points out, “the Workers’ Party (PT), in power, and other left-leaning groups made limited gains” in this year’s election.
According to the document, “the results highlight a continued consolidation of the Brazilian party system, suggesting that smaller and less successful parties will gradually lose influence nationally and locally.”
“Local politics should provide a robust platform for clientelistic parties to become decisive in future elections for the Chamber of Deputies,” the Eurasia report continues. “Any administration elected in 2026 will depend on them to form a coalition and pass legislation, leveraging political sponsorship,” says the consultancy.
“Centrão” will govern for 74% of Brazilians from 2025; see electoral balance
Poll balance after the second round indicates that 4,022 of the country’s 5,569 municipalities will be commanded by representatives of PSD, MDB, Progressives, União Brasil, PL and Republicans
Limited influence for 2026
Still according to Eurasia analysts, it is hasty to interpret the results of the municipal elections in Brazil as a preview of what could happen two years from now, in the general elections, when the president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) must run for re-election.
“Does the resounding defeat of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s left-wing candidate, Guilherme Boulos, in São Paulo, to Mayor Ricardo Nunes, by almost 20 points, suggest problems for the president? On the other hand, will the disappointing performance of the former president’s candidates Jair Bolsonaro in the second round (only seven of his 25 candidates prevailed) does this mean that he will not be the protagonist of the right in 2026 or that voters will opt for centrist candidates? The answer to both questions is an emphatic ‘no’”, says Eurasia.
According to the consultancy, “local elections predominantly concern local issues – garbage collection, education, security and health services”.
“Furthermore, this electoral cycle was predominantly influenced by the advantages of the current presidents. Mayors benefited from double-digit real income growth, strong local tax accounts and the distribution of budget allocations that led to record public investments and produced the highest re-election rates ever,” the report says.
“Being a mayor running for re-election is usually a challenging task (they are on the front line of public services), resulting in a historic re-election rate of 59%”, highlights the consultancy.
“However, this election cycle yielded an 82% reelection rate, meaning that eight out of ten incumbent candidates were successful in the runoff. Center and right-wing parties dominated the elections. The PSD, MDB, União Brasil and Progressistas stood out, elected the largest number of mayors and obtained the largest number of votes”, continues the report.
Northeast guarantees PT’s only victory in a capital; centrão dominates the other regions
Election confirms hegemony of the “centrão”, consolidates PSD and sacraments Tucana’s collapse
“The Liberal Party, linked to former president Jair Bolsonaro, also performed well, electing the fifth highest number of mayors and coming in first place in total votes for mayors, despite a slight drop in its success rate.”
The consultancy also cites the timid performance of the PT and other left-wing parties, which “obtained marginal gains”.
“Despite slight improvements in the governed population, victory rates and total votes compared to 2020, notable losses in areas historically under its control, such as Teresina, the capital of Piauí, and Araraquara (a medium-sized city in the state of São Paulo), left them disappointed”, says the text about the PT.
“They achieved an important victory in the second round by beating the capital of Ceará, Fortaleza, but had a poor overall performance. However, expectations were very low, given that they ran in opposition, and the presidential palace should not overreact to these results. Local disputes will not affect the size of the spending cuts that Lula will likely announce in November”, concluded Eurasia.
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