Has the Bukele effect reached Colombia? Right-wing bets on hard-line speech against crime
The fight against organized crime is no longer just a government agenda to become one of the main electoral platforms in Latin America. In Colombia, where the escalation of violence has returned to the center of political debate, the phenomenon has gained a new face, that of Abelardo de la Espriella, a criminal lawyer who is running for President promising to toughen up against guerrillas, drug traffickers and armed groups.
Better known as “El Tigre”, the candidate built his campaign inspired by conservative leaders who gained international prominence by defending zero tolerance policies against crime, such as the president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, the Argentine Javier Milei and the North American Donald Trump.
For political scientist and partner at Real Time Big Data, Bruno Soller, the rise of candidates with this profile is not an isolated phenomenon in Colombia, but part of a broader trend that crosses Latin America.
“Nayib Bukele is perhaps today the great shaman of the Latin American right”, he stated during his participation in the program Mapa de Risco Internacional, from InfoMoney.
According to him, the popularity achieved by the Salvadoran president after the offensive against gangs transformed his strategy into a reference for conservative politicians across the region.
“De la Espriella wants to be that Nayib Bukele today.”
New debates
The Colombian election takes place amid an increase in urban violence, the resumption of dissident activities by the FARCs and a sequence of attacks that has placed public security at the center of the presidential dispute.
In Soller’s assessment, the deterioration of the security scenario has reorganized the conservative field and strengthened candidacies that promise tougher responses to organized crime.
“The public safety issue reorganized this right-wing vote,” he stated.
The movement follows a change observed in several Latin American countries. If for decades the right mobilized voters mainly through the fight against communism and the left, today the main flag has become public security and the fight against organized crime.
The promise to restore public order has gained ground in countries marked by the advance of criminal factions, drug trafficking and urban violence, a phenomenon that also influences the Brazilian political debate.
Politics has become a spectacle
In addition to discourse, the new Latin American right also shares communication strategies.
Soller highlights that leaders like Milei, Trump and Bukele transformed politics into a product highly connected to digital culture and entertainment. Abelardo de la Espriella himself deviates from the traditional profile of Colombian politicians.
A career criminal lawyer, he gained public notoriety even before entering politics and draws attention for an unusual trajectory: he also works as a professional tenor.
“He’s a tenor. You can put ‘O Sole Mio’ on YouTube”, joked Soller when commenting on the candidate’s profile.
For the political scientist, there is a common characteristic among these new conservative leaders. “They’re almost showmen. When you see them giving speeches, it looks like a show.”
The combination of social media, more aggressive language, personalization of the contest and strong emotional appeal has helped bring these candidates closer to younger voters.
The Colombian laboratory
The strength acquired by candidacies like De la Espriella’s also reflects the wear and tear of Gustavo Petro’s government. Elected in 2022 as the first left-wing president in Colombian history, Petro came to power promising to reduce violence through the policy of “total peace”, based on negotiations with armed groups.
But the persistence of conflicts, the resumption of attacks and the strengthening of guerrilla dissent opened space for criticism from the opposition and reinforced the discourse that the country needs to return to a tougher confrontation strategy.
In this context, candidates aligned with the so-called public security right began to occupy the center of the dispute.
For Soller, what is happening in Colombia could anticipate debates that will gain strength in other elections in the region, including in Brazil.
“As long as we promise only discussion and not resolution, the issue of public security will be on the rise in this election,” he stated.
The Colombian dispute, therefore, does not just measure the strength of the left or right. It may indicate to what extent the formula that propelled Bukele in El Salvador will continue to be one of the most effective political strategies in Latin America.
