Lula government tests measures to recover popularity in the midst of global tension

The XP political analysis team discussed the main movements that marked the political and economic scenario in recent weeks, in a new edition of Podcast Political frequency. The conversation was conducted by Paulo Gama, who highlighted the reinforcement of the group with the arrival of Barbara Baião to the team, in addition to the participation of Vítor Scaletti, strategist of the house, and analysts Bianca Lima and João Paulo Machado, directly from Brasilia.

Among the highlighted topics, the impact of the new tariffs imposed by the United States and the Lula government’s attempts to resume their popularity were central to the analysis. According to analysts, early April was marked by measures to encourage the economy and actions aimed at relief in negative perception of the government.

Paulo Gama recalled that opinion polls earlier this year indicated a drop in the approval of President Lula. Since then, Planalto has been betting on a sequence of initiatives to reverse the scenario. The changes began with the appointment of Laércio Sidônio to the Secretariat of Communication at the end of 2024 and gained strength with measures such as the release of the FGTS balance to those who joined the anaque an annersement, the expansion of private payroll loans and, especially, the submission of the income tax reform proposal.

The IR proposal provides exemption for those who earn up to $ 5,000 per month, offset by a minimum rate for those who receive more than $ 50,000 per month. Another focus of management has been the Minha Casa Minha Vida program, which underwent adjustments and reinforcement of resources with electoral focus.

Continuous uncertainties in internal policy

Internal policy, however, lives with uncertainties in the external scenario. Vítor Scaletti pointed out that Brazilian markets remain sensitive to the international conjuncture, especially the climbing of commercial tensions between the United States and China. “We are living a more risky world, with less global growth. This is not a positive scenario for emerging people like Brazil,” he said.

Scaletti also pointed out that the Trump government increased to 125% rates on Chinese products and reduced reciprocal tariffs with other countries to 10%, including Brazil. With this, the country lost part of the “relative bonus” that was being considered for having milder fares compared to other emerging.

Although there are short -term opportunities – such as possible gains in soy or oil trade due to the tariff war between Washington and Beijing – the general panorama is cautious. “Brazil still needs to show that it is wheat, not running, in this global scenario. And for now, perception is still under construction,” warned the strategist.

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Toolbox

In the assessment of Barbara Baião, the perception within the government is that the “toolbox” to recover popular support has begun to have an effect. A recent Datafolha survey showed stabilization in the disapproval of the president, which was seen as a sign that actions began to function. Still, she has pondered that the government seeks to calibrate stimuli without compromising the fiscal framework, keeping an eye on public accounts.

“The government bet now is to find measures that generate positive impact on the electorate, but without bursting the inspector,” he explained. According to her, there are coordinated movements to meet specific electorate clippings, such as informal workers and delivery, with credit stimuli and support programs. “If popularity rates no longer react, the tendency is a higher dose of impulse,” he said.

With the proximity of sending the Budgetary Guidelines Law Project (LDO), scheduled for up to April 15, the political market is expected to have a faster week due to the Holy Friday holiday. Still, analysts warn that decisions being made will now help shape the scenario for the 2026 election race.

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