Lula should use meeting with Trump to show strength during crisis with Congress

President Luiz Inácio Lula Silva should use the meeting scheduled for Thursday with the President of the United States, Donald Trump, to try to show that he has international prestige at a time when he is facing the biggest crisis with the National Congress in this third term.

After the Senate rejected last week for the first time in 132 years a presidential nominee for the Federal Supreme Court (STF), the opposition began to propagate that the government is over and that Lula will be “a lame duck” by the end of the year. The term is usually used to refer to presidents at the end of their terms with low political capital.

With the visit to the United States, scheduled last week in a telephone conversation between the two presidents, Lula wants to show that he still has political strength, despite the internal setback with the rejection of the Union’s attorney general, Jorge Messias.

There is also an expectation that the meeting will take the focus off the political crisis while Lula is still evaluating how he will react after discovering that the president of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), acted against the president’s nominee.

The Brazilian president will still try, with the meeting, to disarm Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s (PL-RS) plans to sell himself in the campaign as an ally of the American president.

In a speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Texas in March, Flávio called on the United States and the world to “observe Brazil’s elections with enormous attention” and “monitor freedom of expression” and “apply diplomatic pressure” so that “institutions function properly.”

He also stated that “Brazil is the United States’ solution to break China’s dependence on critical minerals, especially rare earths”. With the visit, Lula would show that he also has a good relationship with the president of the United States. Furthermore, he could pose in the campaign as a “statesman” respected on the international stage.

Among the topics that should be discussed between the two presidents are, in addition to the war promoted against Iran, tariffs on Brazilian exports. In February, the American Supreme Court overturned Trump’s 50% tariff on Brazilian products. But, days after the decision, the president of the United States made a point of reaffirming that his government continues to investigate Brazil and China for alleged unfair trade practices.

“If these investigations conclude that unfair trade practices exist and that corrective measures are justified, tariffs are one of the tools that can be imposed”, stated a note released at the time by the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR), the American trade representative agency.

Another issue that should be discussed is the possibility of the United States classifying the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV) factions as terrorist organizations. Brazilian authorities fear that the eventual classification will pose risks to national sovereignty. In March, the United States Department of State told GLOBO that the American government considers Brazilian criminal factions to be a relevant threat to regional security.

Still within this topic, Lula should also discuss with Trump about Brazil’s intention to strengthen cooperation between the two countries in combating organized crime, with a focus on money laundering, arms trafficking and the exchange of financial data.

The two presidents will also discuss the exploration of critical minerals. In February, the United States government invited Brazil to join a new international coalition focused on the supply, mining and refining of critical minerals. The proposal presented by Washington involves partnerships to guarantee access to inputs such as lithium, graphite, copper, nickel and rare earths, in addition to the creation of minimum price mechanisms, with the aim of offering greater predictability to the market and reducing volatility.

The political situation in Venezuela and its impact on South America will be another topic discussed. Lula is an outspoken critic of the American military intervention that resulted in the arrest of dictator Nicolás Maduro on January 3. Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, assumed the interim presidency with the support of the United States.