Quaest shows voters still waiting: 65% are undecided in the race for 2026
The Genial/Quaest survey released this Tuesday (16) reveals that the 2026 presidential race remains marked by a high degree of uncertainty. In spontaneous voting intentions, when the interviewee responds without access to a list of candidates, 65% of voters say they do not know or do not answer who they would vote for.
The percentage is significantly higher than that observed in the same period of the previous electoral cycle. In 2021, months before the 2022 presidential election, the undecided rate was 54%, which indicates an electorate that is even more cautious and distant from making early decisions at this time.
Quaest: 54% say Bolsonaro was wrong to nominate Flávio to run for President
Survey also shows low immediate engagement of the electorate with the candidacy and critical assessment of support from allies
Lula says that Bolsonaro deserves to be condemned, but that he makes no judgment about punishment
Petista stated that, when his time comes to analyze the Dosimetry PL, “he will be sitting with God and will make the decision”
The data helps to contextualize the stimulated scenarios released by Quaest itself, in which President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads, followed by names on the right such as Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans).
Although these scenarios indicate trends, the high rate of uncertainty shows that a large part of the electorate has not yet internalized the dispute nor associated clear preferences with the possible candidates.
This contingent could be decisive for the outcome of the election. These are, to a large extent, less ideologized voters, sensitive to situational factors such as the economy, employment, social policies and government performance throughout 2026.
The research itself points to an improvement in the perception of employment and a reduction in economic pessimism, but without automatic conversion into an electoral choice.
The advance of undecided voters in relation to 2021 also suggests a less crystallized political environment than in the previous cycle, when the polarization between Lula and Jair Bolsonaro was already more consolidated in advance.
Now, even with Lula in the Planalto and Bolsonaro out of the direct dispute, voters seem to adopt a waiting posture given the fragmentation of the opposition field and the absence of a campaign that has actually started.
The survey was commissioned by Genial Investimentos and interviewed 2,004 voters between the 11th and 14th of December. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level.
