US election: When to expect results in each key state tonight (and beyond)

Vote counting will extend beyond election night on Tuesday, and determining the outcome of the presidential race could also take time. Even in states that count their ballots relatively quickly, if the race is as close as polls indicate, it could be days before a winner can be projected (election results are never official until final certification).

In 2020, a record number of people voted by mail due to the pandemic, and many states were processing large quantities of mail-in ballots for the first time. While voting by mail has declined in many states and others have made changes to speed up counting, these types of ballots still take longer to count.

Democrats have been more likely to vote by mail, and variations in counting times can contribute to so-called “mirages” in reported results — cases in which the type of ballots reported first favor one party in a way that is not representative of the final result. .

Here’s what we expect from the vote count in each key presidential state (all times are Brasilia time):

GEORGIA

Quick count (but pay attention to the margin of votes)

The polls close at 9pm.

Most Georgia voters tend to vote early, and vote reporting is generally relatively quick. The proportion of mail-in ballots, which may take longer to count, is expected to be small. The vote-by-mail rate returned to the state’s usual level of around 6% in 2022, after growing to around 25% in 2020.

The state may still be counting corrected mail-in ballots, overseas ballots and provisional ballots in the days after the election.

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020: It took more than two weeks to declare the state in favor of Joe Biden. The reason: The presidential race was so close that a manual audit of the ballots was initiated. The Associated Press did not call the race until the state audit confirmed Biden’s victory — by about 12,000 votes.

RECOUNT RULES: There is no automatic trigger for a recount, but candidates can request one if the final margin is less than or equal to 0.5 percentage points of the total votes cast for the position.

NORTH CAROLINA

Quick Count (with new rules)

The polls close at 9:30 pm.

Early voting is very popular, and votes are counted very quickly, with 98% to 99% of votes reported by midnight Eastern Time in the last two major elections. New rules mean that early voting results will no longer be reported immediately when polls close, but mail-in ballots must now be turned in by Election Day.

In the 25 western counties most affected by Hurricane Helene in late September, voters were provided special accommodations for voting, and a small number of secure tents were erected to replace destroyed polling places.

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020: It took 10 days to declare the state in favor of Donald Trump, then president. Because the race was so close and ballots postmarked by Election Day were able to arrive nine days later, the wait until the deadline for the state’s counties to certify their results.

RECOUNT RULES: There is no automatic trigger for a recount, but a candidate in a statewide race can request one if they trail the leading candidate by 0.5 percentage points of the total vote, or 10,000 votes, whichever is fewer. (In 2020, Trump won the state by 1.3 percentage points.)

PENNSYLVANIA

It will probably take longer than election night

The polls close at 10pm.

It takes longer to count votes in Pennsylvania, mainly because election workers can’t start processing mail-in ballots until Election Day. However, vote counting has accelerated significantly from 2020 to 2022, in part due to new, faster equipment and a requirement that most counties continue counting mail-in ballots without stopping after polls close, including overnight. .

Democrats have been voting a lot more by mail. In the 2020 presidential race, after an initial batch of heavily Democratic votes, the reported count favored Trump until more mail-in ballots were counted, and Biden’s margins widened.

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020: On the Saturday after the election, mail-in ballots were still being counted, and there were still a number of provisional ballots outstanding in the state. But the state managed to project that there were not enough votes left for Trump, and declared the race for Biden (the state also provided the remaining votes he needed to win the presidency).

RECOUNT RULES: An automatic recount is triggered if the margin in a statewide race is 0.5 percentage points or less of the vote. (In 2020, Biden won the state by 1.2 percentage points.)

MICHIGAN

May be faster than in the past

The polls close at 10pm and 11pm.

In the last two general elections, about half of the votes in Michigan were counted by midnight Eastern Time, and most of the remaining votes were counted by noon the next day. But the state has passed important reforms that could speed up the process: It recently implemented nine days of in-person early voting and now allows counties to begin processing mail-in ballots before Election Day (although not all places plan to take advantage of the new rule). .

Mail-in ballots — which have been more likely to be voted by Democrats — arrived slowly over time in 2020. This contributed to a “red mirage” showing Trump ahead in the reported count before all mail-in ballots were counted. This pattern was not repeated in the 2022 gubernatorial election, and it is unclear how the new preprocessing rules will affect the order of reported votes.

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020: A declared the state in Biden’s favor around 6 p.m. Eastern Time the day after the election. Although some mail-in ballots had not yet been counted, they were from predominantly Democratic areas.

RECOUNT RULES: An automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 2,000 votes or less in a state election.

WISCONSIN

Will likely finish most of the counting on Wednesday

The polls close at 11pm.

Election workers cannot begin processing ballots until Election Day, but are required to count overnight until they are finished. In some jurisdictions, including Milwaukee, absentee ballots are counted at a central facility and are reported in large batches. A state official told reporters that complete, unofficial results likely won’t be available until the morning after the election.

In 2020, Trump was ahead in the reported count until final results came in, including thousands of ballots from predominantly Democratic areas in Milwaukee. This “red mirage” in the results contributed to conspiracy theories about Biden’s victory. This pattern was not repeated in 2022.

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020: The state was declared in favor of Biden in the afternoon of the day after the election. Only a small number of provisional ballots and a few hundred ballots from one small town still needed to be counted.

RECOUNT RULES: There is no automatic trigger for a recount, although a candidate can request a recount if they trail the winning candidate by a margin of 1% or less. A recount requested by Trump in 2020 resulted in a very small vote gain for Biden, who won by a margin of 0.6%.

ARIZONA

It may take days

The polls close at 11pm.

The first results usually come in around 10 p.m. Eastern Time, an hour after polls close. Most voters vote by mail, and counting often takes time. While poll workers can process ballots that arrive before Election Day as soon as they are received, they must wait until after polls close to process ballots that arrive on Election Day.

Two factors may contribute to longer waits this year. Officials are now required to count and report the number of ballots delivered on Election Day before they begin processing them. And in the state’s largest county, Maricopa, there are so many contests that the ballot is two pages long, which means more paper to tabulate. Officials said complete results could take 10 to 13 days.

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020: A declared the race in Biden’s favor around midnight Eastern time on election night, and A made the same declaration three hours later. But there were still many mail-in and provisional ballots outstanding, and The New York Times and other outlets were unsure that Trump no longer had a path to victory. The Times ended up making the statement nine days after the election, on November 12.

RECOUNT RULES: Biden won the state by 0.3 percentage points in 2020, when the automatic recount threshold was 0.1% of the two leading candidates’ total votes. New legislation approved in 2022 increased this limit to 0.5 percentage points.

NEVADA

It may take days

The polls close at midnight.

In recent elections, about half of Nevada voters voted by mail, and counting often takes time. Counting could be faster than in the past due to new technology and a rule that allows officials to tabulate ballots sooner. However, postmarked ballots can arrive up to four days after the election on November 9, and voters have until November 12 to correct errors on their ballots.

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020: It took four days to declare the state in Biden’s favor in 2020. There were still thousands of mail-in and provisional ballots outstanding, mostly from Clark County.

RECOUNT RULES: There is no automatic trigger for a recount, but any candidate can request one (although they will have to pay the costs if they are unsuccessful).