US GDP grows 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026 due to investment in AI

IN 30 SECONDS

What has happened? The United States GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026, the highest pace in a year, according to the statement released by the White House this week.
Who is behind? Private investment in plants and equipment, which advanced to 9.4%, and consumer spending, with 3.8%. The White House attributes it to its economic agenda; Democratic Congressman Walkinshaw points to artificial intelligence data centers.
What impact does it have? The data reinforces the economic argument of donald trump before Brussels and consolidates a situation of high rates and a firm dollar that makes financing more expensive for Spanish companies with interests in the United States.

The United States GDP grew by 3.4% annually in the third quarter of 2026, the highest pace in a year.

Spread by the White House This week, the data comes in small print that should be read slowly: not all the momentum comes from the same place. Private investment in plants and equipment advanced at an annualized rate of 9.4%, above the already strong second quarter. Consumer spending, for its part, grew 3.8%. Two motors, two speeds.

Business investment signed its best quarter in almost fifteen yearswith an advance close to 13% between July and September, according to the official note. So far this year, investment is growing more than double that of 2025 and three times faster than the 2.3% recorded in Biden’s last year, the comparison that the donald trump repeats in each appearance.

From 9.4% to 3.4%: what is really behind the data

The average of the last three quarters is 2.7%, above the consensus of Blue Chip (2.4%) and the Congressional Budget Office forecast (2.2%). Seventy-two out of every hundred economists surveyed by Bloomberg fell short of the July to September figure. The official note sums it up bluntly: ‘The experts were wrong. Again.’

Added to consumption is a detail that the administration considers structural. Capital goods reach a record weight in American imports —the machinery and equipment with which the industry is built—, while consumer goods fall to 17%, the lowest level on record. Translated: The US buys fewer sofas and more machines.

Behind that turn is the trilogy that the Republican Party repeats since 2016: low taxes, less regulation, cheap energy and tariffs as a pressure tool. The complete note, with the investment series, can be read in the White House statement.

3.4% growth is not a medal: it is the argument with which Washington negotiates tariffs, interest rates and energy with Brussels.

The Democratic fine print: data centers yes, families no

Democratic congressman Walkinshaw provided the counterpoint this Thursday from the Capitol, according to statements reported by the American press: investment in artificial intelligence data centers is inflating the GDP figure, he said, but families are not noticing that money in their pockets. The criticism that the Democratic Party is going to repeat until November 3 It is exactly that: growth is measured, everyday life is felt.

The polls speak on November 3.

For Spain the data is read in two keys. The first is of types: a growth of 3.4% gives the Federal Reserve margin to keep the price of money high longer than the European market discounts, and every tenth of the differential with the ECB is paid in the financing of public debt and in Spanish variable mortgages. The second is market-related: a strong dollar makes American imports cheaper and Spanish exports more expensive, just when the foreign sector contributes less to growth and the EU is advancing at a much slower pace than the American one.

Santander and BBVA They have retail banking in the United States and they win when the cycle does not cool down and rates stay high. The connection is not theoretical: it is an income statement.

Iberdrola and Action They compete for the electricity that data centers demand. Ferrovial and ACS They bid for the public works that accompanies each new plant. AND Inditex lives from consumption which confirms 3.8%. None of this is a threat. It’s a window.

Washington Logic

Reading from the inside is simpler than it seems. The White House It needed three things heading into November 3: a growth headline, an investment figure that sounded like a factory, and a recognizable enemy, the ‘experts’, to explain why the rest of the world didn’t see it coming. 3.4% deliver all three in a single statement.

The manual has precedent. Reagan used the recovery of 1983 and 1984 to sell his tax cut; Clinton turned the 1998 surplus into an argument for legitimacy; Obama presented every piece of data after 2009 as proof that the stimulus worked. No American president has wasted a good quarter. donald trump It won’t be the first either.

The coalition that supports the story is that of industrial republicanism: domestic investment, tariffs and cheap energy as a competitive advantage. What the statement calls America First trade is, in practice, the argument with which Washington It sits down to negotiate with Brussels every time a tariff file is opened. The risk exists and is not minor: that the 9.4% in plants and equipment is a cycle peak tied to tax incentives and the data center fever, and not a sustainable plateau.

The next windows sort themselves. The legislative elections on November 3 will decide who counts the next data and with what adjectives. Then comes the FOMC meeting—the committee of the Federal Reserve which sets interest rates—scheduled for December, where it will be decided whether 3.4% allows us to continue without rushing. And in parallel, the tariff files opened with Brussels continue, which will return to the table. Washington does not ask permission. He has never asked for it.

Case File

The case: The GDP of the United States accelerated to 3.4% annually in the third quarter of 2026, the best record in a year, with business investment as the driving force and family consumption as the support of the cycle.
Key facts: Investment in plants and equipment at 9.4%; consumer spending at 3.8%; average of the last three quarters of 2.7%, compared to the 2.4% consensus; 72 out of 100 economists surveyed by Bloomberg fell short.
For Spain: Growth like this sustains high rates and a strong dollar, makes debt financing and variable mortgages more expensive and opens a market for Santander, BBVA, Iberdrola, Ferrovial and Inditex in the United States.