With security and privatizations in the center, Tarcísio and Haddad renew the dispute in SP

Divergences regarding topics such as the privatization of Sabesp and the conduct of public security policies should punctuate the debate between governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) and former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT) in the dispute for command of the state of São Paulo, the largest electoral college in the country. In this repeat of the 2022 clash, the two promise to fight for the ownership of investments at the same time that they will need to define the final design of their tickets, which still have open nominations for the Senate.

At the start of the pre-campaign, the electorate has expressed a preference for Tarcísio, according to the Genial/Quaest survey released last week. The survey shows that the governor registered 38% of voting intentions in a stimulated scenario of the first round against 26% for Haddad. Four years ago, the numerical difference between them was the same — 44% to 32% — with Haddad coming out ahead.

A recurring theme in the last election for governor, the privatization of Sabesp now resurfaces as Tarcísio’s legacy, while Haddad must seek to associate it with negative effects perceived by the population. The state-owned sanitation company was privatized in June 2024, with a transfer of 32% of the shares to the private sector, for the value of R$14.7 billion, while the government began to have a minority role, with goals of universalizing services by 2030 and investing R$66 billion. At the time, the initiative was questioned in court and reached the Federal Supreme Court (STF) through joint representations of the parties PT, PSOL, Rede Sustentabilidade, PV and PCdoB. The action, however, was unanimously rejected in the Court’s plenary session.

Reactions

Since then, as reported by GLOBO columnist Vera Magalhães, complaints filed with Arsep, the state’s public services regulatory agency, have increased, along with complaints about undue charges made to Procon. At the beginning of this year, the governor also had to respond to a moment of water stress, after a period of lack of rain, and said, at the time, that he would not rule out the possibility of creating a contingency tariff, that is, an increase in charges for customers who exceeded the previous year’s average consumption.

In parallel, Tarcísio has mentioned the transposition of basins, reservoir interconnection works and management of nighttime demand as decisive initiatives for saving water and improving reservoirs, stating that the actions provided savings of almost 85 billion liters. When raised in this pre-campaign, the subject is objected to by Haddad, who says he would not have privatized the state-owned company, but that the PT “respects contracts”.

— PT governments respect contracts. In the four PT governments that began and ended their mandate, we always respected the contract because we understand that disrespecting the contract ends up bringing much more harm than gains to a serious and respected economy like Brazil’s — said the former Minister of Finance after announcing the pre-candidacy.

In response, the governor argues that, if the privatization were not carried out, the company could lose relevant markets, putting its own sustainability in question.

— With the new sanitation framework, as programmable contracts expired, and each municipality had its own, it would be necessary to carry out new tenders, which could be won by Sabesp itself or by other companies. If another company entered the Sabesp market, there would be a loss of something fundamental in sanitation, which is scale and sharing of infrastructure — he said, last month, in an interview with SBT.

In addition to disagreeing about privatization, the two have disputed the ownership of investments made in the state. In a video published on social media at the beginning of this month, Haddad stated that the state government hides investments from federal management, such as in the construction of the Intercidades Train, which will connect the capital to Campinas, and in the expansion works of the subway in the capital of São Paulo.

In response, Tarcísio stated that there is an attempt to “appropriate someone else’s work” after “at some point in the past the BNDES or Caixa lent money”. Other initiatives, such as the Santos-Guarujá tunnel and the future smart hospital at the University of São Paulo (USP), financed by the two entities, also have the potential to be used as showcases.

Pointed out as the state’s main problem by 36% of voters interviewed by Quaest published last week, violence will also mobilize candidates. On the one hand, during this term, the governor defends the adoption of a hard line in relation to the actions of the police and the Public Security department, commanded by Guilherme Derrite, pre-candidate for the Senate for the PP, until the end of last year. On the other, Haddad aligns himself with the federal government in defending the fight against organized crime, via intelligence actions, and the Public Security PEC, the target of criticism from the opposition, which argues that the text will lead to the loss of state autonomy.

In the field of electoral issues, Tarcísio and Haddad face the same problem: the lack of definition of the Senate tickets. In the case of the governor, there is an internal dispute within the PL for the second vacancy, since the first will be allocated to Derrite. Among those listed are the president of the state Legislative Assembly (Alesp), André do Prado (PL), who sought the endorsement of former federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro. The son of former president Jair Bolsonaro was the right name for the position before leaving Brazil last year. The president of Alesp has the support of the party’s national president, Valdemar Costa Neto.

Competition

In the PL, other names express interest in the vacancy: federal deputy Mário Frias, vice-mayor of the capital Ricardo Mello Araújo and federal deputy Rosana Valle, who has the support of former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro.

On the left, Haddad has three options for the Senate that also occupied the Esplanada: Simone Tebet (PSB), from Planning; Marina Silva (Rede), from the Environment; and Márcio França, from Entrepreneurship. So far, Tebet’s nomination is the only one taken for granted.

When her name was tested at Quaest, she appeared numerically ahead of her opponents, registering 14% of voting intentions, followed by França and Marina, both with 12%. The survey showed that the three performed above Derrite, who had 8%, and André do Prado, 5%, in addition to federal deputy Ricardo Salles (Novo), who had 6% and was also competing for Tarcísio’s support.