CEOs are losing confidence in the economy and expect it to get worse in 6 months, says survey

If you’ve been feeling uncertain about the future of the economy, you’re not alone. As the war in Iran disrupts global energy supplies for the foreseeable future and AI companies threaten to reshape the entire workforce, business leaders are also facing uncertainty.

A recent survey of 141 CEOs found that their confidence in the economy declined significantly between the first two quarters of 2026. The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index fell from 59 in the first quarter to 47 in the second quarter. A result below 50 indicates that there are more negative responses than positive ones.

Also read: CEOs never stop looking for this concept to survive endless global crises

“CEOs report that the economy is substantially worse now than it was six months ago and expect economic conditions to weaken further over the next six months,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at research group The Conference Board.

“Relative to their own industries, CEOs’ assessments of current conditions and expectations six months from now have also worsened since last quarter.”

Nearly half of those surveyed said overall economic conditions were worse than they were six months ago, compared with just 8% in the previous quarter.

The survey, conducted in collaboration with The Business Council, found that CEOs’ top concerns were cyber, geopolitical and artificial intelligence-related risks. Supply chain issues and energy concerns have also gained importance among business leaders.

These concerns are almost certainly linked to the global disruption in the energy sector caused by the war waged by the United States and Israel against Iran over the past three months.

Although President Donald Trump declared a ceasefire on April 8, the United States, Israel and Iran have yet to reach an agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

As a result, fuel prices have increased by 50% since the start of the war, and problems in supply chains are piling up.

One example is Maersk, the second largest shipping company in the world, which operates 700 vessels and transports around 14% of all goods in containers on the planet.

CEO Vincent Clerc said the war is costing the company an additional $500 million a month, an amount the company tries not to pass on to customers, but warns that this could become inevitable.

CEOs’ outlooks on their own industries were also more pessimistic this quarter. A third said conditions in their sectors were worse than they were six months ago, while another third said the situation had improved.

“Planned business investments remained stable in the second quarter as most CEOs reported making no revisions to their capital investment plans.

However, the share of those who anticipate increasing capital expenditures over the next 12 months has increased, while fewer CEOs expect to reduce these investments compared to the first quarter,” said Roger W. Ferguson Jr., vice president of The Business Council.

Three in ten CEOs expect to reduce headcount, up from 27% in the first quarter.

More than half of those surveyed said that artificial intelligence will not fundamentally transform their industries, although they are preparing to better empower their workers.

Nearly a quarter of CEOs said they will need to reskill more than 50% of their employees in the next two years.