Quaest: Nunes (24%), Boulos (23%) and Marçal (21%) maintain a triple technical draw in SP

6 days before the first round of the 2024 municipal elections, the dispute for mayor of São Paulo (SP) remains tangled with three candidates technically tied for the lead. This is what the new round of research shows Quaestcommissioned by TV Globo and released on Monday night (30).

According to the survey, carried out between September 27th and 29th, the current mayor Ricardo Nunes (MDB) maintains its numerical leadership, now with 24% of voting intentions − a negative fluctuation of 1 percentage point compared to the survey released a week ago.

The federal deputy Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) appears with the same 23% as the previous survey. While the influencer Pablo Marçal (PRTB) fluctuated from 20% to 21% in the same period.

As the maximum estimated margin of error is 2 percentage points up or down, it is not possible to say who would finish the first round ahead if the election were held today. Likewise, the two names that will compete in the second round on October 27th are also unpredictable.

In the second platoon of the research, the federal deputy appears Tabata Amaral (PSB)with 10% of voting intentions (she had 8% last week), and the presenter José Luiz Datena (PSDB)which maintained the 6% of the last survey. The two are also technically tied, within the margin of error.

The economist Marina Helena Santos (New) maintained the 2% of voting intentions from last week, in a technical tie with Datena.

Other candidates − Bebeto Haddad (Christian Democracy), João Pimenta (PCO), Ricardo Senese (Unidade Popular) and Altino Prazeres (PSTU) − did not score. The group of undecided voters fluctuated from 7% to 6% in the period, while those who say they will vote blank, cancel their vote or not go to the polls went from 9% to 8%.

Spontaneous search

Quaest also tested a spontaneous scenario (in which the voter nominates their candidate without being presented with names by the interviewer). In this case, Boulos has 17% (it was 16% last week), Marçal and Nunes are tied with 14% (both registered the same mark in the last survey), and Tabata appears with 4% (stable). Datena and Marina Helena each have 1% of voting intentions.

Second round

Three second-round simulations were carried out involving the best-positioned candidates in the research. According to the survey, if the election were held today, Nunes would defeat both Boulos (49% to 33%) and Marçal (53% to 26%). In a possible dispute between Boulos and Marçal, the parliamentarian would have an advantage (41% to 36%).

How is the research carried out?

The Quaest survey interviewed 1,800 voters in the city of São Paulo (SP) aged 16 or over. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews using structured questionnaires.

Also read: Quaest combines traditional electoral research model with statistical innovations; understand the methodology

The survey’s confidence level is 95% − which means that, if it had been carried out more than once and under the same conditions and deadlines, this would be the probability that the result would be repeated within the maximum margin of error, of 3 percentage points.

The survey was registered with the Electoral Court and filed under protocol SP-01233/2024.