MDB’s electoral performance leads PT and PL to try to attract Bolsonaro’s party

MDB’s performance at the polls in the first round of elections and projections for the second round, next Sunday (27), are already leading PT and PL to try to attract the party.

The MDB was the second party with the most elected mayors, winning in 847 cities in the first phase of the dispute. The PSD, the party of the former minister and secretary of the Government of São Paulo, Gilberto Kassab, was the party that received the most votes in the first round: the party elected 878 mayors in the first round.

Publicly, PT members already claim that Lula should expand the range of alliances to 2026, including the MDB. As published by the newspaper’s columnist The Globe Lauro Jardim, PT president Gleisi Hoffmann cited Nunes’ party as one to be incorporated into the PT alliance.

But Bolsonarism also has its eye on the party. This Tuesday (22), in a press conference after participating in a Nunes campaign event, the former president himself Jair Bolsonaro (PL) was asked if he would seek the MDB’s support in a possible candidacy in 2026 and replied: “It’s logical”.

The fact that the party is at the head of the capital of São Paulo and balancing between the federal and state governments raises doubts about what direction it will take in 2026: whether it will continue to be aligned with Lula or whether it will embark on a center-right project.

Dispute

If it wins the mayor of São Paulo, the MDB will be in a fierce dispute with the PSD for the title of party that governs the largest number of Brazilians.

In the first round, Nunes’ party lost the lead it had held for years in the number of mayors, falling behind the PSD by a tiny difference of around 30 cities. It will also be the first time that the MDB will win the City Hall of the capital of São Paulo by popular vote — the only MDB mayor in São Paulo was Mário Covas, appointed in 1983 by the then governor Franco Montoro, during the military dictatorship.

Nunes was vice-president on Mayor Bruno Covas (PSDB), who died while in office, in 2021.

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Tarcisio Factor

Although there is little willingness in the MDB to support Bolsonaro in 2026, the idea of ​​following a project led by the governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) is seen with enthusiasm.

According to the Estadãosince assuming the Presidency, Lula has not called federal deputy Baleia Rossi, leader of the MDB, for a conversation, which bothered the national leader. This distancing contrasts with Tarcísio’s stance.

The MDB played a decisive role in Lula’s victory in 2022. Although the party declared neutrality, the national leadership released its members to support both the PT member and the then president Jair Bolsonaro. This decision opened space for emedebista Simone Tebet, who achieved around 4% of the votes in the first round of the election, to support Lula, helping to guarantee the PT member’s narrow victory over the then PL candidate.

If, in the Bolsonaro government, the MDB did not occupy the first echelon, under Lula, it gained command of three ministries: Cities, with Jader Filho; Transport, with Renan Filho; and Planning, with Simone Tebet herself.

Despite the alignment with the left at the federal level, in São Paulo, the most populous state in the country, the MDB approached Tarcísio during this year’s elections, with the governor becoming one of the main enthusiasts of the emedebista project in the capital.

Baleia Rossi’s coordination with Tarcísio led the PL to give up on launching its own candidacy and join the mayor’s coalition. The relationship between the two parties – PL and MDB – became closer with Bolsonaro’s nomination as Nunes’ vice-president, which placed the fingerprint of Bolsonarism on the MDB’s main showcase in Brazil. In the first round, the party secured the city halls of two capitals: Boa Vista (RR) and Macapá (AP).

On Sunday, 27th, bet on victories in Belém (PA), Porto Alegre (RS) and São Paulo (SP). In the capital of São Paulo, Nunes is a supporter of Bolsonaro and even threatened to leave the MDB in 2022, when Simone Tebet climbed onto Lula’s platform.

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“Bolsonarization”

In this year’s election, Baleia Rossi was coordinator of Nunes’ campaign and worked to avoid a “Bolsonarization” of the candidacy, playing midfield so that the mayor would not enter into direct clashes with the federal government, according to allies. Nunes, in fact, said little about Lula during the campaign, maintaining the rivalry only with Boulos.

Quaest research on the second round in São Paulo, released on Wednesday (23), shows Nunes with 44% of voting intentions and Boulos with 35%. The scenario remains unchanged with changes only within the margin of error. According to the survey, 19% of voters stated that they would vote blank or cancel their vote if the election were held today; another 2% said they were undecided.

In the institute’s previous survey, released on Wednesday last week (16), Nunes appeared with 45% of voting intentions compared to 33% of mentions for Boulos. There were 19% blank votes, null votes and those who said they were not going to vote, and 3% of the voters interviewed did not respond. Compared to the new result, Nunes fluctuated one point down, while Boulos fluctuated two points up.

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